Trump win and US politics: The big picture and key takeaways

Republican Donald J Trump’s march back to the White House as the US president is only some formalities, including the country’s unique electoral college voting, away with him winning the November 5 election against the Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris. Trump emerged the winner in a poll that kept the country on tenterhooks throughout the months-long campaign.

It was always projected to be a neck-and-neck race, and it remained so until November 5, when Trump managed to grab all seven swing states that play a crucial role in the electoral verdict.

The US and the rest of the world are keen to see what Trump’s comeback, riding high on a campaign that reflected the deep divide in American politics, means to that country’s political and social environment. Any change in the US’ political climate can also have an impact on many other countries, either in a positive or an adverse way.
Here are some takeaways from the US presidential election 2024: 

Trumpism triumphs
There is an overwhelming thinking among political and academic circles that the Republican Party, aka the Grand Old Party (GOP), has been undergoing a fundamental change ever since Trump took centre stage. From what used to be a conservative party very much concerned about what it believed to be American values and sharing a similar economic outlook with its traditional rival, the Democratic Party, the Republican Party has now become some sort of a hard-liner, much to the disagreement of a section within.

Trump has cemented his position as the face and the brain of the party in this milieu with this authentic electoral victory. The fact that the party has also been able to win the Senate along with his presidency makes his clout within the Republican system all the more stronger. 

“Definitely, there has been a reshaping of the Republican Party. It has become more personal-centric. I mean the party that is aligned with Trump. There are more traditional Republicans. Many high-profile Republicans do not support Trump. They are conservatives. As far as the party in power is concerned, it’s very much about Trump. He is the central figure. He shapes the ideology or the policy proposals by what he wants. Look at the case of abortion. Earlier, the dividing line was whether you were pro-life or pro-choice. Now the debate really centres around whether you want the Federal government to regulate abortion or you want state governments to decide,” Daniel Pedreira, a professor of Politics and International Relations at Florida International University, told Onmanorama. He said it needs to be seen how the traditional Republicans would react to this new change in the party’s ideology and style of functioning. 

Democrats’ dilemma
The incumbent Democratic Party went to the polls with uncertainties right from choosing the candidate. President Joe Biden was nominated initially more out of compulsion than political wisdom. His age was always a concern. He had to leave the campaign midway after a pathetic performance in the debate with Trump. Harris entered the stage as the party nominee by the time Trump had already made some strides. She was perhaps not prepared enough for the job. The Democrats will have to answer a lot of questions from within and its supporters as to the perceived mismanagement in the crucial election and how are they going to regain confidence. 

At the moment, they have a leadership crisis and the next four years are likely to witness the emergence of a new leadership. However, more interesting would be to see how they are going to shape their style of politics to match or challenge the Republican Party of Trumpism.

End of the road for Harris?
Harris went to the race to make history. She would have been the first female president and the first president with Afro-Asian roots had she won. But that was not the case to be. The loss leaves nothing for history nor for her. A presidential race loss is usually the end of a politician’s ambitions in the US in recent history unless you are a certain Donald Trump. Whether Harris would be given the time and support to build another campaign or will she have to settle as a former vice president is something to look out for. 

Indo-US relations
It is evident that Trump enjoys a good rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, it is not clear how Trump’s second term would impact the US’ relations with India. Trump’s push to impose tariffs on imports could affect India’s IT, pharmaceutical and textile sectors.

However, Trump’s penchant to keep China away could work out in India’s favour in terms of manufacturing. His strong anti-immigrant stance which could lead to stricter visa and immigration rules could also have an adverse impact on many Indians. The ties between the two countries on defence sector could also witness some changes on what Trump intends to do in the field.