Sheikh Hasina’s resignation amidst violent protests is a sad commentary on the twists that Bangladesh, born of a freedom struggle in 1971, and the world at large has witnessed. What began as a movement led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman 53 years ago against Pakistan’s military government, has culminated in yet another military takeover. Ironically, like millions of her compatriots who had fled then, Hasina, Mujib’s daughter, has taken refuge in India.
Full of irony is the storming of her Dhaka home and the vandalising of Mujib’s statue by frenzied protesters. The man who led the freedom movement, called the “father of the nation”, was brutally murdered along with most of the family members (Hasina, living abroad, had escaped) in 1975. That legacy has all but ended.
The country is back under army control after reportedly, Hasina was given a 45-minute ultimatum to quit. The Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman, in office since June 23, has promised an “interim government”, without mentioning if he or the army would have any role in it. But there should be no doubts about who will call the shots. He has talked to opposition parties. Most of them have anti-India credentials. The development should worry India.
Who to blame for the turn of events?
For this turn of events, Hasina, the world’s longest-ruling leader, in power since 2009, has largely herself to blame. She failed to read the warnings that came with the protests over an essentially socio-economic and potentially emotive issue. The protesters’ principal demand was the repeal of the job quota reserved for freedom fighters of the 1971 movement but extended to their children and even grandchildren.
That, on the very face of it, if one looked above the emotions the freedom war generated, was unfair. Job quota was hurting those who did not benefit and came in handy for Hasina’s opponents amidst economic distress.
Hasina first called them ‘razakars’ (pro-Pakistan opponents of the freedom movement), and then called them ‘terrorists’. A Supreme Court verdict that reduced the quota to the minimum could have been a face-saver for both sides. But it was probably too little, too late.
Some quarters have said that this concession would have further compromised Hasina. The use of force over the five weeks’ protests, enhanced in the last week, only added to the mass fury. Of nearly 300, over 90 were killed last Sunday alone.
How this issue took centre stage, and not the generally emotive anti-Hasina tirade with a strong “India Out” element, and how Hasina thought that she could suppress it all can be attributed to ineptness and hubris born out of an overwhelming parliamentary majority. She forgot that her father, too, enjoyed it, besides mass popularity.
In comparison, the Dhaka protests and the siege of Gono Bhaban were akin to the developments in Sri Lanka. The Rajapaksas also enjoyed a huge majority.
Much of the democratic world saw the elections in 2014, 2019 and in January that the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party boycotted, as deeply flawed. She had won an overwhelming majority in each of them.
Clear indications exist of the involvement of the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami and socially powerful Islamist organisations, besides the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of ailing and jailed former premier Khaleda Zia.
Pakistan’s ISI never stopped functioning in the erstwhile East Pakistan. But the Western democracies, inimical to Mujib and his family, always rejected Hasina’s claims.
Hasina was in India twice recently. We will not know if she discussed it or even gave an indication of her troubles ahead, to Prime Minister Modi or anyone else in the Indian government.
Will Hasina return?
Bangladesh, whether it was down and out in the 1970s, or the last decade of Hasina when it had emerged as Asia’s fastest-growing economy, has the image and odium of being corrupt. The fact is it has never left Bangladesh. Hasina last month admitted and announced action against an aide who, while working from her home, had made enough money to travel by helicopter.
That, plus the use of the ruling party’s cadres -- no matter which party -- to beat down the opponents, which was in greater evidence in the last few weeks, remains endemic to Bangladesh.
Hasina won the 2009 election after the then-army leadership had ruled for over two years despite promising elections within 90 days. The gambit, allegedly West-sponsored, envisaged a ‘friendly’ government in Dhaka minus Hasina and Khaleda, the two perennially battling Begums of Bangladesh.
Hasina had belied her critics by winning that election and providing more than a semblance of political stability and economic progress. It remains to be seen when and how General Zaman will bring the country back to the democratic rails.
In India, it will be Hasina’s second exile, but under totally different circumstances. She spent about six years between August 1975 and May 1981 after Mujib’s assassination. She returned then. Whether she can return now is a big question.
(A famous journalist, Ved was the chief of bureau of the United New of India in Dhaka)