Nomadic Insights

Column | Can Europe learn from Modi's political setback?

Despite the Narendra Modi-led NDA government being sworn in for a third term, the underlying message in the 2024 Lok Sabha verdict is striking: India has witnessed the end of one of the most far-right regimes to ever rule the country. Anyone with a basic understanding of how 'real' coalition governments worked in India knows that BJP, lacking 32 seats for a majority, has no choice but to curb its far-right policies to be in power. It is highly likely that, under the constraints of a coalition, the Modi government will be coerced into a consensual route, thus creating space for a liberal-constitutional democracy.

The fallout of the Indian far right happened at a time when far-right parties were dominating the European Parliament elections held in early June. After the election results came out, an intriguing question was raised by a curious German friend over a coffee: “Is there anything Europe can learn from Modi's setback despite implementing most of his far-right promises?”
Responding to a German national who was deeply concerned about the far-right resurgence, given their historical knowledge of Europe's own fascistic past, was not an easy task. Many liberal Europeans nowadays harbour the fear that the dark history of the last century can repeat itself, albeit not to the same extent or with as much impact.

Far-right parties in Europe
Besides making significant gains in the European Parliament elections, far-right nationalist parties either rule or are the largest party or part of the government in Switzerland, Italy, Hungary, Finland, and Poland. The rise of these political parties can be explained very well by three major factors.

Firstly, whenever the far right has occupied positions of power in the West, it has often utilised xenophobic and protectionist fervour. Far-right movements in Europe primarily advocate for hardline anti-immigrant policies, with particular focus on Muslims, who constitute the largest immigrant group. Countries with substantial Muslim populations, such as Germany, are currently experiencing a rise in hate crimes.

“As a European who is also brown and Muslim – and who has long wanted the EU 'project' to work – I am terrified by the extent of power and influence wielded, inside and outside government, by politicians who are unashamedly racist, xenophobic, and Islamophobic, and whose vision of Europe is also inherently hostile to women, Jews and gay people,” says Brussels-based EU commentator Shada Islam while writing for The Guardian in the context of EU Parliament elections.

Another factor contributing to the rise of the far-right in Europe is the increasing lack of trust people have in establishments, particularly the European Union. Often referred to as ‘right-wing populist movements’, this reflects the common perception that governments serve only a few elites. The recent farmers' protests that spread across Europe largely stemmed from anti-establishment sentiments among ethnically white, rural-based farmers and were fuelled by right-wing politicians.

An important third factor is the erosion of identity in an increasingly technologically advanced world. In the context of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and related job loss, the disgruntled working class perceives the new globalized world and technological innovations as threats to their way of life. In present-day Europe, there is a widespread sense of transformation into what Yuval Noah Harari calls a 'useless class' – people who lack the skills needed in the new economy.
The right-wing machinery, however, successfully exploits AI-triggered labour market uncertainties by linking them to more tangible issues such as immigration and multiculturalism, portraying them as the root cause of all problems.

Indian variant
The far-right movements in both Europe and India share a few common characteristics: exaggerated national pride and an overenthusiastic trust in a charismatic leader rather than confidence in the country's democratic and other institutions. Another commonality is anti-Muslim sentiment, which was used indiscriminately by the BJP during its election campaign in 2024.

Nevertheless, there are certain crucial differences in the way the BJP and European far-right parties engage with religion and apply scientific principles in the realm of development and policy making.

Religion typically does not play a crucial role in European politics, even when far-right parties assume power. Separating religion from state affairs is considered 'sacrosanct,' while real-world issues like inflation and climate policies dominate far-right priorities – alongside their anti-immigration stance. For instance, the far-right National Rally party, whose leader Marine Le Pen is a strong contender for the next French presidency, prioritizes the "concrete improvement of French people's lives" in their political agenda.

However, in India, throughout Narendra Modi's tenure as Prime Minister, religious jingoism has dominated the political scene, with heightened efforts to promote Hindu cultural pride by strategically blending religious sentiments with political rhetoric. Under the Modi regime, there were widespread violent clashes over religious identity, especially concerning the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), and significant religious polarization.

What propelled Modi to power in 2014 and his re-election in 2019 was the people's discontent with the poor governance of the previous UPA government, as well as his development agenda. However, while in power, instead of systematically improving governance through scientific approaches to public policy formulation, he tried to increase support among hardcore Hindutva supporters through majoritarian agendas such as the Ayodhya temple.

Despite its bandwagon of 'Developed India,' there are multiple instances where the first two Modi governments exhibited a tendency to suppress unfavourable socio-economic data and create delays in producing accurate figures. The delay in conducting the 2021 census and the government's dissatisfaction with the datasets of the National Family Health Survey are perhaps the best examples, which have detrimental effects on sound budget allocations and administrative planning. Additionally, India’s universities and research institutes suffered a significant setback due to the proliferation of Sangh Parivar affiliates within academic institutions, with little to no regard for scientific rationality.
Despite their anti-establishment rhetoric, during far-right rule in Europe, science and academia have remained largely untouched, and research institutions and evidence-based policy formulations have thrived.

Takeaway
The electoral setback of the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, including in the constituency where Ayodhya and the newly-built Ram temple are located, indicates that Indian voters do not prioritize mere religious and nationalist rhetoric that fails to improve the lives of ordinary citizens. Returning to the German friend's question, Europe's attraction to the far-right may remain strong as long as perceived threats such as immigration, globalization, and technological advancements like AI pose challenges to human jobs and economic security. However, the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections underscore that delivering development and welfare does not align with the divisive politics of the far right, despite their grand rhetoric.

(Social anthropologist and novelist Thomas Sajan and US-trained neurologist Titto Idicula, based in Norway, write on politics, culture, economy, and medicine.)