Analysis | Rajasthan lessons: Forced generation shift is no answer to Congress' crises

Whether Sachin Pilot stays with the Congress or not, the latest round of Rajasthan drama has proven one thing – the line of thought that 'the Old Guard is a curse and the so-called young blood is the hope' is as flawed as any other theory of resurrection of the party.

All of a sudden, the political punditry that the young leaders can revive the fortunes of the party if given a free hand appears hollow and a view in 'black and white'. Such a revival, which many thought leaders like Pilot could drive ahead, seems to be an impossibility.

The hollowness of the much-hyped and non-existing Rahul brigade was exposed big time when Jyotiradithya Scindia joined the BJP and caused the fall of the Congress government in Madhya Pradesh in March this year. Now, having engineered a failed coup in Rajasthan, Pilot has reassured the apprehensions about their inexperience, if not inability.

Pilot has just exposed himself both within and outside the party. The only outcome of his inopportune rebellion, until now, is his loss of face. Joining BJP with no qualms, Scindia made it clear that ideological integrity means nothing to him. The unending exodus of Congress MLAs to the BJP in the northern states has proven that there's no point in expecting any lofty ideological stance from an ordinary MLA in the Hindi heartland. But Scindia, who held the top post of party general secretary and had a close relationship with the former party chief, showed that even he did not consider Hindutva as a sin. Pilot, for that matter, has, at least for now, taken a stance that he would not join the BJP. However, by taking refuge in a BJP-ruled state and allegedly colluding with the saffron party to topple the Gehlot government, Pilot, just like Scindia, has put his ideological credentials under the cloud of suspicions.

Both Scindia and Pilot could have held some moral high ground had they launched their own political outfits following the footsteps of Sharad Pawar or Mamata Banerjee. No matter how shrewd or flawed they are, the senior leaders have stood the test of time and proven that they can decide on the course of politics in their states. On the other hand, by cosying up to BJP, the brutal force that challenges the very existence of their organisation, Scindia and Pilot categorically put their credibility at stake. Congress may or may not survive the most testing times in its history. But one thing is clear, neither Scindia nor Pilot is the kind of leaders who could have contributed much to the revival of the party. In other words, the overdose of ambition the two leaders showed makes it look like, at least for the time being, the pragmatic wisdom of the veterans could do better for the party, even if it means giving the party a decent funeral.

The Congress episodes in the two large states offer two major lessons. One, the reins of the organisation is still within the grips of the veterans. The young leaders, no matter how popular they are in other parts of the country or on social media, have not mastered the skills to get the organisation machinery on their side. What they have are factions, the never-ending curse of the party culture.

Scindia could topple the government in Madhya Pradesh, but only by quitting the party which is still run by the Digvijay Singh-Kamal Nath combo.

Perhaps, learning from the Madhya Pradesh lesson, Gehlot could show both Pilot as well as the fragile central leadership that who is the real boss in the Rajasthan Congress.

It is easier to advise the Congress leadership to shrug off the old generation and hand over powers to the young blood as a policy decision, but such a lofty gesture could end up nothing but suicidal for the party at a time when it is in the weakest shape in its history. The generational shift in the party has to be a natural process and not something forced upon the party structure from the top. It also has to happen as per the specific situations in each state. Generational shift does not always have to be handing over the CM's throne to youngsters. The real shift has to take place at the organisational and policy-making levels. Pilot, in that sense, had to ensure that he remains the PCC chief.

Pilot's follies

In politics, it could be a crime to ask someone to wait. But in case of Pilot, he himself proved that he should have waited, at least to ensure that he had enough wait on his side to sink, or at least threaten to sink, the ship he was on board.

Threatening the party to destroy the government with the support of 30 MLAs and ending up with less than half of them, Pilot told the world that he surely has not learned some lessons of politicking that Gehlot mastered in his decades-long career. Pilot's failure to ensure the support of a sizeable chunk of legislators also put doubts on his claims of reversing the fortunes of Congress in Rajasthan in the five years the party was in opposition. Provided the desert state's track record of electing alternate governments every five years, one could not be blamed for doubting whether Pilot played any crucial role in ensuring the party's victory with a wafer-thin majority against a factionalism-ridden BJP.

"Pilot asking for the CM's chair is a question totally out of place. How can the central leadership ask Gehlot who has the support of nearly 100 MLAs ask to step down for Pilot who has only 10 MLAs on his side. Making way for Pilot by dropping Gehlot would mean the collapse of the organisation in Rajasthan. Pilot had been given all possible top posts by the party. Even now, he was the natural choice for CM if the party gets another chance in the state, but he was not willing to wait," a young Congress functionary close to the Delhi leadership said.

He said talks were still on and the leadership was hopeful of a solution which will be good for all sides. Pilot is someone who even had the credentials to rise to the number one position in the party at some point of time, he said.

Pilot has just crashed such possibilities, at least temporarily.