Looks can be deceptive, even when it comes to monsoons

The localised fury of monsoons, whose worst manifestation this year was the unprecedented Mundakkai-Chooralmala landslides, can be deceptive. The southwest monsoon stretching from June to September, despite the havoc it had created in certain parts of Kerala, was deficient by 13 per cent. The northeast monsoon, too, suffers the same fate, perhaps worse. 

Though it began with a bang,  with heavy showers in the first half of October, the rainfall by the end of November is showing a deficit of 22 per cent. Nine of the 14 districts in Kerala have recorded a northeast monsoon deficit. (Kannur, Kozhikode, Idukki and Thiruvananthapuram are the four districts where the northeast monsoon is normal this year.)

The deficit is most pronounced in Ernakulam (41 per cent), Kasaragod (39 per cent), Kollam (37 per cent), and Thrissur and Malappuram (32 per cent for both). Nonetheless, in weatherman jargon, the deficit is not "excessive." 

Another factor that worked in Kerala's favour was the "excess" pre-monsoon rain. Between March 1 and May 31, the day before the southwest monsoon officially began, there was a healthy surplus of 40 per cent.

This could be the reason why KSEB's dams, though overused during the last two months, are 71 per cent full now. Last year same time, though there was excess northeast rain, the average reservoir levels were marginally less at 67 per cent.

The healthy position of reservoirs has also emboldened KSEB to use the water in its dams without inhibition to generate more hydel power, a considerably cheap option. 

If last year, at the same time, 10 million units were generated daily in its hydel plants, this year it is 15 million units a day during the last fortnight of November. "We are hoping that the northeast will pick up in December," a top KSEB official in the generation wing told Onmanorama. As it stands, Kerala seems unaffected by the shortage of rains. Nonetheless, there could be a medium and long-term fallout. 

Despite the proliferation of cyclones off the eastern coast, the latest being Fengal, Tamilnadu, and Andhra Pradesh, have not received adequate rainfall this year. Paddy cultivation in these two states is in crisis. 

"With paddy cultivation becoming unremunerative, there is a chance that farmers in Tamilnadu and AP may shift to more reliable crops. This can lead to a steep increase in paddy prices," said Anil Raghav, an agriculture expert.