KERALA BYPOLLS

Analysis | Bypoll over, what next for these Kerala leaders?

Kochi: The bypoll results in Kerala could be decisive for the political future of a set of leaders – both on the winning and losing sides. While his emphatic win in Palakkad assembly constituency opens up new paths of political growth for Congress’s Rahul Mamkootathil, the road ahead looks uncertain for his rival candidate Dr P Sarin. Nilambur MLA P V Anvar, BJP defector Sandeep Varier and Congress’s Chelakkara candidate Ramya Haridas are among the leaders whose political careers could take new turns with the bypoll outcomes.

Rahul shines brighter
Rahul Mamkootathil had a meteoric rise in the Congress hierarchy in a short span after he emerged as a star debater in prime time television during the 2021 assembly elections. His unmatched communication skills made him an instant star among Congress supporters, though he started political activism through the party’s students' wing, KSU. Rahul became a part of the Congress' mainstream leadership after he was elected the Youth Congress president a year ago. His debut contest to the Assembly was rather unexpected, as was the Congress’ decision to field Shafi Parambil in the Lok Sabha election from Vadakara constituency. Shafi’s victory in the Lok Sabha polls left Palakkad Assembly segment vacant and opened the way for Rahul’s candidature.

Having emerged victorious with a record margin of 18,840 votes, Rahul’s political career has reached a milestone at age 35. Now, he can flaunt his communication skills on the floor of the Kerala Assembly. Though Congress already has a battery of effective speakers in the House, Rahul can easily fill in the absence of Shafi with his ability to present facts and figures laced with sarcasm and emotion as required. Though he will have only less than two years in the current Assembly, he will be the natural choice as the candidate in the next Assembly election too. An effective performance as a legislator on the floor and an MLA who can address people’s issues in the short period is all that is expected from him. His growth in the party structure would depend on how much he lives up to the expectations.

‘Comrade’ Sarin
Dr Sarin triggered all the drama that unfolded during the Palakkad bypoll period with his decision to quit Congress in protest against Rahul’s candidature. The CPM was quick to welcome him and field him as its candidate. Sarin, who was the Congress’s IT wing chief, became an overnight darling of the comrades and arch-rival of his former party colleagues. Though he ended up third in the bypoll as other CPM candidates in the previous polls, he put up an earnest campaign lifting up the spirit of the comrades who saw no chance in the constituency. Sarin has managed to retain the CPM’s vote share in the constituency despite the shadow of defection and ideological volte-face looming large over his electioneering. If the CPM had expected him to bring along the dissident voters in Congress, that has not happened.

Sarin’s political existence now depends on how the Communist party accommodates him. In Palakkad, where the CPM has a leadership crisis, Sarin can still hope to explore more opportunities in the party. As of now, it would be a mutually thankful relationship between him and his new party. Will he be fielded once again from Palakkad, or will he be given a safe seat? The answer is less than two years away.

Anvar fails reality check?
PV Anvar dictated the political narrative in Kerala ahead of the bypolls. In a shocking move, the CPM-backed independent MLA quit the Left front after unleashing an attack on Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. He formed his political platform called the Democratic Movement of Kerala and fielded candidates in Palakkad and Chelakkara. He withdrew the candidate from Palakkad but retained his nominee in Chelakkara. N K Sudheer, the independent candidate backed by him, polled 3,909 votes in the LDF stronghold, where CPM’s U R Pradeep emerged victorious.

Anvar can boast of polling nearly 4000 votes even in a left stronghold, although it is not yet clear which side he pounced support for. His performance does not match the claims he made about emerging as a corrective political alternative in the state. He can still dream about playing a spoilsport for both the LDF and UDF in the local body polls due next year, and attempt some bargaining. However, he may not be able to influence the size of voters he expected to, if Chelakkara is any indication. Having done a reality check, he is likely to strike a deal with a potential ally sooner than later.

Secular Sandeep
Sandeep Varier added much to the bypoll drama in Palakkad with his decision to leave BJP and join Congress. Known for his communication skills, Sandeep started speaking in the Congress tongue from day one. He totally ditched the Sangh ideology and emerged as a repenting champion of the secular cause overnight. Sandeep’s switch-over worked out to be an overt expression of the rift within the BJP. And the results prove that the majority of voters in Palakkad, probably including BJP supporters, share his dislike for the party candidate Krishnakumar.

Sandeep can expect the Congress to use his communication skills and amplify its narrative of an unholy CPM-BJP nexus in the run-up to the coming elections. If he stays on, he can expect a role in the party structure and perhaps a ticket in the 2026 polls, too.

What awaits Ramya?
Ramya Haridas should regret the opportunity she lost. After winning the 2019 Lok Sabha poll from the Left bastion of Alathur, the young woman leader had all the opportunity to evolve as a leader of the aspirational class, cutting across party lines. Controversies, one after another, plagued her career, and she ended up being the only Congress candidate who lost her seat in the 2024 LS elections. Chelakkara gave her another chance though the constituency found a better candidate in CPM’s Pradeep.

Ramya can find solace in the fact that she managed to significantly reduce the CPM’s winning margin in Chelakkara compared to the 2021 polls. Her focus now should be on improving her connections with the people and presenting herself as a winnable candidate both to them and to her own party.