KERALA BYPOLLS

Onmanorama Survey: It's Congress vs BJP in Palakkad; anti-incumbency will be decisive

Plight of paddy farmers and the performance of the LDF government are the two factors that will primarily influence voter behaviour in Palakkad. This is the finding of a random survey conducted by Onmanorama on November 19, the day before the Palakkad by-election.

Nearly one-third of the voters surveyed, 32.5% of them, said that the problems faced by paddy farmers, especially the delayed procurement of paddy and low procurement price, will be on top of their mind when they cast their votes on November 20. For 27.5%, the issue that will weigh most on their minds is the performance of the Pinarayi Vijayan government.

When asked who was responsible for the low paddy procurement price, nearly half, or 47.5%, said it was the LDF-led state government. Only 20% said it was the centre.

Together, this is a clear indication of a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. The survey results also hint that the battle will be mostly between the UDF and the BJP, with the CPM relegated to the third position.

A substantial chunk of another 32.5% said personal political preferences will decide their choice, and a small cohort within this 32.5% picked poor physical infrastructure (poor roads, medical college, town hall) as the issue that worried them the most.

Voters seemed least bothered by the allegations of a secret deal the BJP has struck with either of the two major fronts. 62.5% of the voters surveyed said that they did not suspect the BJP of having entered into such a 'behind the curtain' deal with either the CPM or the Congress. Only 17.5% suspected such a secret deal, and among this group nearly 80% believed that the deal is with the CPM.

The Onmanorama survey also seems to suggest that Nilambur MLA P V Anvar's rebellion has had a very feeble influence on voters. Just 3% have taken Anvar's "criminalisation of politics' charge seriously.

Onmanorama had contacted 40 voters, 20 from the Palakkad Municipality and 20 from the three panchayat areas - Mathur, Pirayiri and Kannadi.

Significantly, 55% of those surveyed said it was hard for them to accept LDF candidate Dr P Sarin's overnight switch to the Left camp. 40% said they were fine with Sarin's allegiance shift.

An overwhelming 67.5%, including two voters who blindly said they would vote for the LDF candidate, dismissed the CPM charge that Congress candidate Rahul Mamkoottathil had smuggled money in a trolley bag.

On the other hand, a majority of those surveyed, 37.5%, believed that BJP state president K Surendran was involved in the Kodakara hawala scandal. Among those who found Surendran corrupt were voters who had absolute trust in the Narendra Modi government.

It also looks like the Centre has been more persuasive than the state government on the Wayanad landslide issue. 74% felt that if the Centre has not transferred enough money for Wayanad rehabilitation, it is only because the state has not done its part. Only 26% said that the Centre was not being helpful enough and that this reluctance, therefore, could be a factor that determines their choice.