Analysis | Who is Anvar's target? Is CPM's independent MLA Pinarayi's saviour or destroyer?

Nilambur MLA P V Anvar, by conducting a series of press conferences and releasing WhatsApp and other taped conversations with police officers, has thrown perhaps the most perplexing political riddle at the people of Kerala.

What, to begin with, looked like a case of personal vendetta -- Anvar's frustration with Malappuram SP S Sasidharan for failing to nab the culprits who had stolen an iron rope from his theme park -- quickly metamorphosed into an uninhibited and relentless attack against the most powerful office in Kerala, against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's most trusted lieutenants: ADGP (Law & Order) M R Ajith Kumar and P Sasi. One is the Chief Minister's preferred cop, and the other, his political secretary.

The Chief Minister has not hesitated to declare a probe against the ADGP. Now that the CPM branch meetings that will build up into the 24th Party Congress have begun, there are indications that voices will be raised within the party against Sasi's role as the CM's political secretary.

Even party insiders are bewildered by the developments set off by Anvar. The situation looks so utterly baffling that there seems to be wild speculation even within the party.

CM's hatchet man
One section feels that Anvar has taken all the pain for the Chief Minister, that Ajith Kumar and Sasi have developed an inflated sense of their importance and, therefore, had to be thrown out urgently.

"It is likely that Pinarayi has realised that P Sasi was using the ADGP for his own ends. If Ajith Kumar could play the super DGP by handing down instructions that only the state police chief (Shaik Darvesh Saheb) can normally give, it was only because he had the backing of Sasi," a CPM leader considered close to Pinarayi said. "Pinarayi is not the kind of person who would like to see the discipline and hierarchy of the force meddled with," he said.

Further, there is also the feeling among cadres that P Sasi was capable of outrageous acts like tapping the phones of even ministers, not just of LDF partners but also of CPM's. "I am sure Pinarayi is aware of this. Many comrades who have access to him had told him this," the leader said. "Anvar has now given him the CM an excuse to act," he added.

CM's head in crosshairs
Another section, however, thinks the opposite, that the Chief Minister himself is the target. "If you want to render a person vulnerable in politics, weaken those around him. Anvar is doing exactly that," a top CPM leader said.

This group points out that it was not by chance that E P Jayarajan's fall from grace and Anvar's offensive happened almost simultaneously. "The power equation within the party is shifting," a CPM member said.

"On election day, after EP's admission that he had seen BJP spokesman Prakash Javadekar, Pinarayi was forgiving of Jayarajan. What we saw was an elder brother fondly admonishing his sibling for acting silly. He said that EP was careless, nothing more. Pinarayi even said that EP's life as a Communist was an inspiration to comrades. Read this along with what Pinarayi spoke about Shiva and the sinner," the CPM member said.

This is what Pinarayi had said after he came out of the polling booth on April 26: "If Shiva sups with a sinner, even Shiva will become a sinner. So Jayarajan should always be careful about the friends he makes." So for Pinarayi, EP was a committed comrade who was at the most imprudent.

Now, four months later, EP has been ousted from the LDF convenor post for the very comments he made on election day. The suggestion is that a new power group led by party secretary M V Govindan, and which has the blessings of the CPM central leadership, is gradually taking control of the party.

The related assumption is, Anvar, who is reportedly miffed that the CM is not sensitive to his demands, has the backing of the emerging power group.

Can Anvar shock Pinarayi?

Nonetheless, even those who argue that Anvar is Pinarayi’s hired assassin find it hard to believe that the CM would take action against Sasi or Ajith Kumar.

"It is not as if Pinarayi is blind to the vicious side of Sasi. When he was brought in as his political secretary in 2022 it was no secret that Sasi was expelled from the party in 2011 for sexual misconduct. And these were no simple violations, these were monstrous crimes committed against women members of the party and even family members of senior leaders," a senior leader said.

Sasi's influence during E K Nayanar's tenure is also well documented. "At that time, everyone knew that it was Sasi who saved P K Kunhalikutty in the icecream parlour sex scandal case. It would be ridiculous to say that Pinarayi would be surprised by any of the new charges against his political secretary. Sasi heads the CMO because Pinarayi knows fully well what he is capable of," the CPM leader said.

It is also not clear whether Anvar's bombshell would force the CM to revise his opinion about ADGP Ajith Kumar. It was only recently that the CM overruled the state police chief's decision to despatch another senior officer to oversee rescue and recovery operations in Wayanad. The CM insisted on having Ajith Kumar in Wayanad.

"We should also not forget that when Ajith Kumar was director of Vigilance he had gone out of his way to protect the CM from the gold smuggling case," another CPM leader said. The reference was to a WhatsApp conversation between Ajith Kumar and a middleman named Shaj Kiran, who, according to Swapna Suresh, was putting pressure on her to withdraw the case against the Chief Minister.

Ajith Kumar's team had also 'abducted' Swapna Suresh's friend P S Sarith and forcibly seized his mobile. After this incident, he was shifted as head of Protection of Civil Rights, a relatively insignificant post.

But within months, Ajith Kumar was posted as ADGP (Law & Order), the most important post after the state police chief.

Read fineprint carefully
Another CPM leader said that the CM's speech at the Kerala Police Association's state conference in Kottayam on September 2 was revealing.

"He said he had information about all that is happening in the police force. This can be read in two ways. One, the CM thinks there is a conspiracy against Ajith Kumar. And two, if at all Ajith Kumar had committed the crimes that Anvar had listed, the CM was already aware of it. And if so, it was with this knowledge that the CM continued to trust the ADGP, even to ask him to oversee relief operations in Wayanad," the CPM leader said. "In short, if the CM has his way, Ajith Kumar will be protected."