WAYANAD LANDSLIDES

GSI's landslide forecast system only on trial in Kerala: Did Amit Shah, Pinarayi spar over nothing?

Thiruvananthapuram: Nobody saw the Wayanad disaster coming except the Centre, according to Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was quick to brush it aside saying no agencies gave an alert. Were both of them trading words over a system that is not even functional in Kerala, it seems so.

In an email reply to Onmanorama, the Geological Survey of India (GSI) has confirmed that it started issuing regional landslide forecast bulletins on experimental mode once in a day for Kerala's Wayanad district from June 25, 2024. While Amit Shah said that the alert was issued as early as July 23, GSI reply to Onmanorama says otherwise. ''Between 26th and 30th July 2024, GSI issued bulletins on all days except 28th July when the system for experimental forecast was down. The GSI landslide forecasts were low on all days for Wayanad district excepting moderate forecast on 26th July for Vythiri Taluk and 30th July for Vythiri and Mananthavady Taluk,'' it said.

This was what Amit Shah told the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday. ''On 23 July, seven days before the disaster, the Centre had given an early warning to the Kerala Government and after this, early warnings were also given on July 24 and 25, 2024. On July 26, the Kerala Government was told that there would be heavy rainfall of more than 20cm and there are possibilities of landslides potentially causing loss of life or property." He said that if those making allegations had read the early warnings, then this situation would not have arisen.

He even gave examples of Odisha and Gujarat. ''A cyclone alert was sent to the Government of Odisha, seven days in advance, and only one casualty was reported. An alert was sent to Gujarat, three days in advance, and not a single animal was harmed,'' he claimed. He lamented that had the Kerala Government acted in time, many lives would have been saved.

Kerala would have been helped if the system had actually worked here. The fact is that the experimental landslide forecast provided for Wayanad is only for validation and ground testing purposes, not for public use and is restricted only to the State Disaster Management Authority and District Disaster Management Authority for receiving feedback. The experimental forecast bulletin requires extensive ground testing over four to five monsoon years, according to the GSI.

GSI has operationalized landslide forecasting only in Darjeeling and Kalimpong districts of West Bengal and the Nilgiris district of Tamil Nadu from July 19 for public use and that too after ground testing in experimental mode since 2020.

Knowing very well that this was an experimental system, Pinarayi Vijayan had no qualms in saying that no red alert was issued. Factually he is right. On July 29 at 2 pm, the landslide forecast for Wayanad district for two days -- July 30 and 31 -- showed low possibility of landslides with an addition that a few small landslides may occur. The locations were Mananthavady, Vythiri and Sulthanbathery taluks. When the CM said that no red alert (very high possibility) was issued he skipped the crucial part: it was an experimental rainfall-induced landslide forecast bulletin not for public use. The map showing the status of the experimental landslide forecast project shows that all the districts in Kerala are in the data collection stage. 

As regarding the deployment of NDRF, documents show that Principal Secretary, Disaster Management, Kerala had sent a letter to the Director General, NDRF to preposition six teams of NDRF in addition to the two teams on June 12, considering IMD's monsoon forecast dated May 27, 2024. Shah, however, said nine NDRF teams were airlifted by the Government of India on July 23 with his approval.