LS POLLS

Analysis | 2024 Lok Sabha results: What are the three possible outcomes in Kerala

2024 is not 2019. In hindsight, the previous Lok Sabha elections in Kerala involved a certain degree of delusional thinking. 
A substantial chunk of voters had the belief that the Narendra Modi dispensation could be displaced. The presence of potential Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad not just amplified this hope but also gave most Kerala voters a feeling of being in the frontline of a spirited charge against the BJP. 

What further motivated the anti-BJP bloc to go all out was the local BJP's attempt to convert the anger of the faithful over the Sabarimala verdict into political gold. This seemed to have fed the realisation that it would be both irresponsible and reckless to resort to habitual voting, of blindly choosing candidates of preferred parties, when a common enemy was threatening to cross the border. So they came together in bigger numbers, cutting across party lines, determined to thwart the BJP's designs. The result was a huge voter turnout of 77.67%, up from 74% in 2014. 

Far more stunning outcome was a near-clean sweep for the UDF; the Congress-led formation bagged 19 of the 20 seats. What perhaps could have contributed to the giant-size victory margins of the UDF candidates (half their winners had a victory margin of over one lakh votes) was the seemingly unnecessary hurry shown by the Pinarayi Vijayan government to allow the entry of women into Sabarimala.  

In 2019, there was a hope of change. But in 2024, there was virtually none. Kerala voted in the shadow of the widely held perception that Modi would return to power for a third time, perhaps with a larger number of seats. Interestingly, the BJP had junked its 400-plus slogan (Ab ki baar, char sau paar) after the second phase of polling when Kerala voted. 

Whether this belief that Modi is invincible was another kind of delusion will be answered only on June 4. The persuasive narrative of an indisputable BJP win could have dampened enthusiasm, reflected in an uncharacteristically low voter turnout of 71.27%.

Twin posers of 2024
It looks like voter behaviour in Kerala this time was primarily driven by two questions. The first: Between the LDF and the UDF, who had the political and ideological resources to take on the BJP?  This one animated the anti-BJP voters.

Here is the second. Is it wise for Kerala to keep spurning the BJP when the party could be in power in Delhi for a longer period than was initially thought? This poser would have troubled the more practical Kerala voters, particularly Hindus and Christians who are not openly right-wing but still feel an instinctive pull towards Modi's personality and also the politics he stands for. 
The answers to these two questions, and also the weightage given to one over the other at the time of voting, can throw up three possible scenarios. 

SCENARIO 1: Fifty-fifty
Imagine the first (LDF or UDF against BJP?) to be the predominant question asked by the average Malayali voter. If a decisive number thinks that the LDF is a better bet, then the front could bag 8-10 seats. 
This cannot be ruled out as the LDF is not on the back foot like in 2019. There are no faith-related issues stalking the Left front, like Sabarimala in 2019. And this time no one believed that the Congress would come to power and Rahul Gandhi will be PM. And since both the CPM and the Congress are part of INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), a voter needn't fear that a vote for the CPM would scuttle the chances of the anti-BJP alliance. 

On top of all this, relations with minorities had been restored this time. In 2019, the CPM had alienated the Muslims. Disturbed by Rahul's candidature, the then CPM state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan had even used BJP jargon to ridicule Congress's links with the Muslim League, indirectly whipping up anti-Muslim sentiment. 

In a complete turnaround, the LDF has positioned itself as the most earnest protector of Muslim rights this time. Uncompromising resistance to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) was the LDF's paramount campaign theme. That there is no mention of CAA in the Congress manifesto could also have worked in the LDF's favour. 

Pinarayi also seemed to have shocked the League by pickpocketing the support of Samastha Kerala Jem-iyyathul Ulama, the most influential body of Muslim scholars in Kerala that was till recently considered the spiritual wing of the League. This new friendship has been put to the test in Ponnani. By fielding former League man K S Hamza, who is said to have the secret but generous support of the Samastha, the LDF could, if not win, at least cause serious embarrassment for the League in Ponnani.

SCENARIO 2: Big UDF triumph
Once again imagine the first question (LDF or UDF against BJP?) to be the uppermost in the mind of the average voter. If most voters think that the Congress-led front was better placed to take on the BJP, the UDF would win big. It can secure up to even 16 seats. 
The likelihood of this happening is high if the strong anti-incumbency mood against the Pinarayi Vijayan ministry upstages the LDF's efforts to position itself as the only ideological alternative to the BJP.

On one side there were governance and political issues: the fiscal crisis (manifested in the delay in the payment of social welfare pensions), man-animal conflict, campus violence (embodied in the death of veterinary student J S Siddharth) and politics of murder (a reminder of which was the accidental explosion of a country-made bomb in April that killed one person in Panur, and another was the High Court verdict in February that upheld the Kozhikode Additional Sessions Court verdict of life imprisonment for those accused in the murder of RMP leader T P Chandrasekharan on May 4, 2012). 
On the other were the serious charges of corruption against the Chief Minister and his family.

Closer to the polling day, and especially after Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal were arrested, the Congress, ignoring the foster brotherhood of the INDIA bloc, had intensified the allegation that Pinarayi had Modi's patronage. Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka, one after the other, kept hurling such insults at Pinarayi.

And then there could even be a mini Rahul Gandhi wave. The stature that his two ‘yatras’ have given him and the bold manner in which he has taken on Narendra Modi's establishment might could tilt the scales in UDF's favour.

SCENARIO 3: BJP opens account
The third scenario supposes that the second question (Why alienate the BJP?) would guide the choices of a decisive section of voters.
If this happens, the BJP could bag at least two constituencies, probably Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur. It is an accepted fact that Shashi Tharoor alone – as the man who so fittingly embodied middle class aspirations - stood in the way of a BJP victory in Thiruvananthapuram. Against him this time, the BJP placed Rajeev Chandrasekhar, who seemed to stand more or less for all that Tharoor stood, nullifying the traditional Tharoor advantage.  

The BJP’s effective ‘under the radar’ messaging that both Chandrasekhar and Suresh Gopi, if they win, will be made ministers could also work in BJP’s favour. 

In addition, if the second question drives voter behaviour, the BJP can improve its vote share considerably in Kasaragod, Palakkad, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Attingal, and even Kozhikode constituencies where the party has been incrementally growing in strength since 2014. In 2019, the NDA had a combined vote share of 15.64%, the highest they had ever achieved.
If a secondary factor like anti-incumbency fuels this pro-BJP trend, which seems likely in this scenario, it would be the LDF votes that the BJP would be eating into.