Kerala's daily consumption sets a record this summer, but no load shedding. Can KSEB still survive?

The LDF government has ruled out cyclical load shedding in the middle of the worst-ever summer. In fact, on May 2, daily consumption set a new record of 114 MU. Kerala State Electricity Board Ltd (KSEBL) will have to find other ways to rein in the peak demand below 5500 MW at least for a fortnight more, after which the IMD says the summer rains will make their appearance.

The KSEBL has reportedly put forward three recommendations. The first - responsible domestic behaviour - has been a perennial request. Given that daily power consumption has been hovering around the 110 million unit mark in the last fortnight, it is clear that domestic consumption will continue to sustain at the existing high levels during summer. .

The second, and seemingly achievable, is the reduction in the night consumption of commercial and industrial users. In the case of commercial users, the KSEB mainly expects display lights and energy-guzzling decorations to be switched off at least when they down the shutters for the day. In the case of industrial users, the KSEB wants them to make use of off-peak hours, to schedule the use of energy-consuming machinery outside peak hours.

The third is to reduce the use of agricultural pumps during the night. These are only recommendations and will not be made mandatory. Also, the request is made only for a fortnight because the KSEB expects summer rains to change consumption after May 15.

According to Viju Rajan John, the chief engineer who heads system operation in KSEBL's transmission wing, the evening peak hour has been extended by nearly three hours. "If the peak hour was ordinarily from 7 pm to 10.30 pm, it has now extended to 1 am. This additional peak hour alone has pushed up peak load by 300-400 MW," he said.

AC and EV trouble
Viju Rajan attributed this surge in demand mostly to the increased use of air conditioners and the charging of electric vehicles during the night. Market analysts also point to the unprecedented growth in AC sales in Kerala. There were days in March when 10,000-odd AC units were sold in Kerala. This March alone, 1.5 lakh units of AC were sold, the highest-ever sales figure for Kerala.
Kerala also has the highest electric vehicle (EV) penetration rate (the percentage of EVs in the total two-wheeler and passenger vehicles in the state) in the country. For two-wheelers, it is 19.5 per cent and for passenger vehicles, 6.4 per cent.

Local power cuts
5850 MW is the maximum load the KSEB transmission lines can carry. On April 29, the peak demand came dangerously close -- 5646 MW, the highest ever. There seems to be no stopping the frenzy. Even on a holiday like May 1, the peak demand crossed 5600 MW (5606 MW).

Last summer, the highest peak-hour demand was 5024 MW. Then, a top KSEB official said that Kerala had the transmission capability to absorb the growth in consumption for at least the next five years. It now looks like the future has arrived abruptly.
"There has been a 19 per cent increase in load this summer. Normally, the annual growth is below 10 per cent," Viju Rajan said.

Though inter-state feeders can absorb an increase in load of up to 5850 MW, local 11 kV feeders might find it hard to bear higher than normal loads. When a local 11 kV feeder is overloaded, KSEB's self-defence mechanism called Automated Demand Management System (ADMS) will automatically trigger and shut the line leading to local power outages. Such outages had become a regular feature in the last week.

"More such outages will happen if we don't control consumption," KSEB’s system operation head said. "At least, keep the AC temperature at 25 degrees Celsius or above. That in itself will make a lot of difference," Viju Rajan said. "If possible, charge EVs early in the morning, say after 5 am or 6 am, than late in the night," he said.

Need for self-declaration
Self-declaration is the other key energy conservation measure. Consumers should mandatorily inform the KSEB about load additions in homes.
"When you install an AC in your home, inform the nearest KSEB office. Make it part of the KSEB's authorised load. A one-tonne five-star AC would mean an addition of 2500-3000 watts in a household. Imagine what the installation of 10 new ACs in an urban colony can do to the load in the area. Even the installation of a power plug of 500 watts should be declared,” the KSEB chief engineer said. "If the KSEB is kept in the dark about these additions, it will not be able to make the necessary upgrades to transformers feeding the lines where the load has increased," he added.