The UDF is all set to retain its bastion, the Ernakulam Lok Sabha seat, despite a sharp fall in its vote share a Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey predicted.
The UDF is expected to lose 10.93 per cent votes, as per the survey.
But the LDF is also set to see a drain in its vote share – it is likely to lose 4.88 per cent.
But the UDF’s loss is likely to result in gains for the Twenty20, which is why the independents are likely to get 13.74 per cent votes. Of this, more than 11 per cent is being routed to the Twenty20’s kitty,
The NDA is likely to gain 3.76 per cent. Despite a drain of 11 per cent shares in the UDF votes, the opposition front still commands a lead of 11 per cent votes over the ruling LDF – 38.85 per cent votes will back the UDF while the LDF is projected to get 28.41 per cent. The NDA’s vote share of 14.24 is likely to surge to 18 per cent this time.
Sitting MP Hibi Eden is the UDF’s candidate in the Ernakulam Lok Sabha seat. K J Shine, a teacher by profession is the LDF candidate, and former PSC chairman K S Radhakrishnan, who was the candidate from Alappuzha LS seat in 2019, is the BJP candidate.
Ernakulam, Paravoor, Kalamaserry, Thrikkakara, Vaipeen and Kochi assembly constituencies fall under the Lok Sabha seat. Four seats have UDF legislators and 3 seats are with the LDF in the state assembly.
Twenty20, AAP, and V4 Kochi also have pockets of influence in the LS seat.
In the 2019 LS polls, Hibi’s opponent was present state Industries Minister P Rajeeve., who lost by a margin of 1,69, 153 votes. BJP candidate Alphons Kannamthanam bagged 1,37, 749 votes.
The Manorama News-VMR survey was conducted in March in all 140 assembly segments of the state, which has 20 Lok Sabha seats. It had 28,000 respondents. The query the survey posed to potential voters was this: Who would win if elections were to be held today?