The UDF shifted its sitting MP and senior Congress leader K Muraleedharan to Thrissur from Vadakara in a surprise move ahead of announcing its candidates for the Lok Sabha elections.
The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey found an unpredictable race in Vadakara.
While the UDF is likely to see a significant dip in its votes, the LDF, too, may experience a slight downswing. The BJP-led NDA, on the other hand, is likely to nearly double its vote share to 14.75% from 7.58% in 2019.
The survey predicted a slide of 6.05 per cent and 0.42 per cent in the votes of the UDF and LDF, respectively. The survey has predicted an even 42.05 per cent vote share for the UDF and LDF candidates.
Indications are that the UDF's loss will be the NDA's gain, and it would narrow the difference in votes won by the two major fronts. The UDF, which fielded Muraleedharan in Thrissur after his sister Padmaja Venugopal left the Congress for the BJP, has nominated Palakkad MLA Shafi Parambil in Vadakara. The LDF is represented by former health minister KK Shailaja, triggering a war of MLAs in Vadakara.
The NDA has fielded a young BJP leader, CR Praphul Krishnan, as its candidate.
The LDF lost Vadakara to the UDF in the 2009 elections. The UDF which reclaimed the seat through Mullappally Ramachandran, completed a hat-trick through Muraleedharan in 2019.
Incidentally, Muraleedharan who had represented Kozhikode in the Lower House three times, contested from a constituency in the district after a gap of 15 years in 2019. He defeated senior CPM leader P Jayarajan by a margin of 84,663 votes, while the BJP won 80,128 votes.
Though the votes NDA won were less than Muraleedharan's victory margin, it is likely to win more support, which would reflect in the poll outcome this time.
The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey covered 28,000 people across all the Assembly segments in March. The survey looked at the possible results if the polling was then conducted. The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey, "Who will win in 20 seats" is the largest in terms of sample size.