The CPM is unlikely to reclaim Kasaragod, the Lok Sabha constituency it had lost to the Congress in 2019, according to Manorama News-VMR Mood of the State survey.
The survey, conducted in March, predicted the CPM-led LDF to lose a significant number of votes, which would help the NDA in increasing its votes. The UDF, meanwhile, would retain its votes.
Rajmohan Unnithan of the UDF is likely to retain the seat, defeating MV Balakrishnan of the LDF, by a difference of 10 per cent of votes.
The survey found that the UDF might end up with 43.09 per cent of the votes, a shade less than its 43.17 per cent in 2019. It is predicted that the LDF will get 33.03 per cent of votes, a major slide from its 39.5 per cent in the previous election. The NDA, the survey said, will win 22.2 per cent of votes, up 6.2 per cent from its gain in 2019.
The LDF is likely to lose 6.74 per cent of votes, which will go to the NDA's kitty.
The Congress wrested Kasaragod from CPM through Unnithan in 2019. Unnithan pipped KP Satheesh Chandran of the CPM by a margin of 40,438 votes. Raveesha Tantri Kuntar of the BJP had then settled for the third position with 1,76,049 votes.
In 2019, Unnithan won 4,74,961 votes, while Chandran got the support of 4,34,523 voters.
The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey covered 28,000 people across all the Assembly segments in March. The survey looked at the possible results if the polling was then conducted. The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey, "Who will win in 20 seats" is the largest in terms of sample size.