During one of his recent customary sunset press conferences, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan told COVID-stricken families in Kerala they need to be so careful that they should not even share a dining table.
A couple of days later, on May 17, the very same Chief Minister was found right in the middle of a crowd of LDF leaders, carefully carving out pieces from a giant-sized cake. It was the first LDF meeting after the historic election victory.
Place side by side these two visuals - the Chief Minister's 'dining table' advice and him cutting the cake. It is easy to accuse him of hypocrisy.
But, after listening to the Chief Minister's sunset briefing on May 17, it did not seem so. What could be mistaken for an imperious instinct to act above the law was, actually, Pinarayi Vijayan just being sentimental.
Listen to what he said during the press briefing about the swearing-in ceremony to be held on May 20. “The reason why we even delayed the swearing-in was to see whether the ceremony could be held in a manner that would fully reflect the joy of the people. We delayed it not only in the hope that we could ensure the participation of the maximum number of people but also conduct it to their great satisfaction. However, certain constitutional duties cannot be postponed indefinitely.”
Pinarayi Vijayan was, in effect, apologising to his delighted voters that he was duty-bound to conduct the swearing-in ceremony with only 500 people. He knew thousands would have thronged the venue had there been no COVID-19. So he promised a glorious get-together after the virus left the scene.
All of this sounded as if he feared he had let his voters down, as if he had not thanked them enough. Therefore, his actions, including the cutting of a giant cake with all his LDF comrades packed around him, should not be seen as a despot's timepass but as attempts to demonstrate to his voters that he is as delighted as they are about his historic win.
At this moment of extraordinary triumph, more than social distancing, it is gratitude that he wants to convey. The Chief Minister has already hinted that limiting the number of attendees at the swearing-in to 500 was a huge sacrifice. Since he would not let his voters down further, there is no chance of a rethink.
It is noble to be grateful, but nobler to be careful. After talking to health experts and frontline workers like police personnel, Onmanorama lists out four reasons why a gathering of 500 at one place has the potential to undermine Kerala's fight against the virus.
Dual Justice
People should not get the impression that there are two kinds of justice in a democracy, one for the rulers and another for the common man. If it has been decreed that marriages and funerals, the most important events in Kerala's social life, should not be attended by more than 20 people, how can a swearing-in ceremony have more?
The lockdown rules are harsh on the common man. The other day, a sick man was turned back by the police in Kilimanoor, where triple lockdown was in force, when he came to buy medicines. He collapsed and died on his way back.
When the public is asked to bow to such rigorous controls, even at the cost of their own lives, how can leaders be exempt. Oath-taking is constitutionally essential. A large attendance for the event is not.
Article 164(3) of the Constitution merely says that "the Governor shall administer to the minister the oaths of office and of secrecy according to the forms set out for the purpose in the Third Schedule."
So, for the event to happen, only the governor, the Chief Minister and the 21 designated ministers are required. The Governor could also have administered the oath of office to the Chief Minister-designate and others online, too.
A general perception of dual justice has already led to minor lockdown rebellions. A police official on duty in Thiruvananthapuram told Onmanorama he had the experience of two men asking him to first talk to the politicians before trying to stop them from going to the nearest shops. “For a moment, I felt speechless but I turned both of them back. When the anger subsided, I knew these chaps had a point,” the officer said.
We talked to two other officers and both said there was a chance of what they called “a public defiance of restrictions” in the near future.
Unreliable tests
The government order on the swearing-in says that entry to the Central Stadium, the venue of the swearing-in, will be limited only to persons having RTPCR/TRUNAT/RT LAMP negative results obtained within 48 hours or on production of final certificate of COVID vaccination.
Fact is, there is not a single COVID-19 test, including the highly rated RT-PCR, that has 100 percent sensitivity. Meaning, these tests could go seriously wrong. Now, with the new Indian variant B.1.617 looking to dominate the proceedings, there is a fear that the virus is evading RT-PCR tests more than ever before.
"We still have only anecdotal evidence. Virologists in Kerala have reported that they had come across individuals with telltale COVID-19 symptoms who had tested negative in RT-PCR tests. But we still don't have any solid data on this," a professional who is part of the government's COVID-19 expert team said.
Despite this concern, Kerala has still not send samples for genome sequencing along with clinical data of positive persons to the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG), a network of 10 laboratories established in December 2020, to continuously monitor the genomic changes of SARS-CoV-2 in India.
There is also the concern that even those who had taken two doses of the vaccine could be carriers of the virus.
"There is no empirical data to show that the vaccinated could act as carriers of the virus. But there is such a fear," the health expert admitted. It is therefore possible that a vaccinated and asymptomatic participant at the venue could transmit the virus.
Influx during lockdown
Winners from all districts in Kerala will be travelling to the capital where a triple lockdown is in force. Most of these politicians generally belong in a crowd and the chances of them carrying the virus is very high.
Nearly all of the successful candidates had gone on a victory lap in their constituencies and had come in touch with large sections of people.
They now travel with their families to the capital. There is also the chance that for those coming from northern districts, travel to the capital will not be a one-day affair. There could be stops along the way. They could visit friends or relatives along the way.
And these participants would have taken their COVID-19 tests before they began their travel.
Protocol violations
The government has said strict COVID-19 protocols - social distancing, double masking, testing facilities - would be adhered to at the venue of the swearing in. The sad reality is that protocols are violated with impunity.
This was witnessed when K R Gouri's body was placed in the Ayyankali Hall in Thiruvananthapuram for the public to pay their last respects. The disruption of COVID-19 protocols was also witnessed at the funeral of R Balakrishna Pillai. The Chief Minister explained this away as a “natural outpouring of grief”.
Again, Central Stadium where the swearing-in will take place, in the context of COVID-19, is not as capacious as the Chief Minister thinks it is. He had said that there would only be 500 within the stadium that has a capacity of 50,000. According to sources, even if COVID-19 protocols are strictly followed, 500 will still be a higher number in the stadium. There were suggestions to limit it to at least 300.