Why does Modi's Kerala visit hint at a last-minute change of BJP strategy

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's address to Kerala voters on April 2, which marks the crescendo of the NDA campaign in Kerala, is curious for two reasons.

One, there was not even a subtle hint of wanting to keep the Christian community happy. Two, the prime minister made no specific mention of any of the major scandals that had rocked the Pinarayi Vijayan government.

Read together, this is perhaps an indication that the BJP had realised the futility of harping on corruption and therefore, as the campaign enters its fag end, has decided to employ in Kerala the strategy it has perfected elsewhere in the country: engineer massive Hindu mobilisation.

Initially, there were behind-the-curtain moves to keep both the Syro Malabar and orthodox churches close to the BJP. The Syro Malabar Church, the most dominant Christian group in Kerala, had even raised the bogey of 'love jihad', an anti-Muslim scare theory spread by the Sangh Parivar. But after Jose K Mani's migration to the LDF fold, the Syro Malabar Church seems to have developed cold feet towards the BJP.

Then there were the overtures to the orthodox Church, an electorally decisive group in Pathanamthitta district. This happened after the LDF government sought to bring the Jacobite faction to its side in the wake of the Supreme Court verdict that legally severed their ties with many churches in Central Travancore.

This too did not bear fruit after the UDF, led by former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, restored its traditional links with the Orthodox Church.

The only option left for the BJP to push for an unlikely victory is ramp up of the communal polarisation rhetoric. In Pathanamthitta and Thiruvananthapuram, both known for their inter-religious coexistence and harmony, Modi listed the names of only the Hindu temples, and referred to only Hindu social reformers. In 2019, Modi was careful not to leave out the names of Christian and even Muslim social reformers.

The prime minister also ignored specific corruption charges even though he did speak in general terms, calling both the UDF and the LDF corrupt. But he did not even tangentially refer to the ongoing Centre-State feud in the gold smuggling case. By taking out corruption, the prime minister is perhaps hoping to give more focus to the BJP campaign in Kerala.

Modi's arrival could also be a cue to amplify the shrillness around Sabarimala during the final lap of the campaign. Many BJP candidates, especially K Surendran (Manjeshwaram and Konni) and Sobha Surendran (Kazhakuttam), had begun their campaigns with Sabarimala in full blast.

But soon, they became hesitant and spoke of development during their campaign speeches. Surendran stopped mentioning Sabarimala in Konni. Now, it could be back to milking the Sabarimala issue for all it's worth.

The prime minister himself made an attempt to egg his party men on. “Look at what is happening in Thiruvananthapuram,” he told the crowd at the Greenfield stadium in Kariyavattom, which falls under the Kazhakuttam constituency from where devaswom minister Kadakampally Surendran is contesting. “You have a minister who is supposed to protect the temples. But he was the mastermind behind the showering of lathis on devotees in Sabarimala,” he said.

Unlike his earlier visits to Kerala, when he exhorted people to think differently, the prime minister spoke as if a BJP victory was a foregone conclusion this time. “The NDA surge I had witnessed in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala is driven by youngsters, women and professionals,” Modi said.

It also looked like the prime minister sets great store by the E Sreedharan effect. “See the pride of place 'metroman' E Sreedharan has got in the NDA. He has done so much for the country and now he wants to give back to the people of Kerala,” Modi said.

He stopped only an inch short of declaring Sreedharan the BJP's chief minister candidate. Modi was subtly using Sreedharan to lure the famed Malayali middle class.