Ground Report | Church, Nair votes and CPI factor: Kanjirappally awaits undercurrents to decide poll outcome

There was no better place than Kanam to confront N Jayaraj, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidate from the Kanjirappally constituency, amid his electioneering for the April 6 Kerala Legislative Assembly polls. Kanam, a remote area in Vazhoor grama panchayat, is the birthplace of Kanam Rajendran, the CPI state secretary.

Rajendran had been vocally against the induction of the Kerala Congress (Mani), to which Jayaraj belongs, into the LDF. However, he had to change his stance as the CPM wholeheartedly welcomed the Jose K Mani-led party to the Left front. Now, in Kanam, CPI workers are canvassing votes for Jayaraj who had been their bete noire until the last assembly elections. In fact, Jayaraj began his assembly election races by defeating Kanam Rajendran in the erstwhile Vazhoor constituency in 2006. He went on to win in 2011 and 2016 from Kanjirappally against CPI candidates.

As the Kerala Congress (M) split and the faction led by Jose K Mani joined the Left front subsequently, Jayaraj is contesting this time as the LDF candidate.

The United Democratic Front (UDF) has fielded senior leader Joseph Vazhakkan. Former Union minister Alphonse Kannanthanam is the BJP candidate.

The electoral battle in Kanjirappally has nothing high-profile about it. The only thing that makes it an interesting political game is the possible undercurrents that could be decisive in the poll outcome.

Jayaraj's strength and weaknesses

Jayaraj, a former professor of Economics who joined politics following the footsteps of his father K Narayanakurup, is confident that his personal contacts within the constituency would ensure his victory. The Congress camp underplays that claim and says that Jayaraj has lost his influence even in Karukachal, his home constituency.

Seeking votes for or against Jayaraj is not easy for both the UDF and LDF. Jayaraj used to be painted as a passive MLA who has not brought any considerable development to the constituency by the LDF. Now, the Left front has to count all the projects he has initiated in the past five years. There was even a concerted attempts to speed up the projects in the the local bodies ruled by the LDF after the Kerala Congress (M) joined the ruling political combine.

Now, the UDF is alleging Jayaraj has not brought any significant development to Kanjirappally constituency. Asked how can they say that since he was a part of the UDF until recently, Vazhackan said Kanjirappally has not witnessed the kind of development the other neighbouring constituencies represented by the Congress-led front has.

Vazhackan's challenge

The LDF is projecting Vazhackan as an outsider. He is from Ramapuram in Pala. “That's a baseless campaign. I'm very close to the constituency. I know the nook and cranny of the constituency. The LDF has no qualms about V N Vasavan, a native of Pambady, contesting from Ettumanoor. There are many such candidates elsewhere,” he said.

Vazhackan said he enjoyed the support of all the sections of the people and communities.

BJP pins hopes on development projects

The BJP had polled 31,411 votes in Kanjirappally in the 2016 assembly polls. It was a huge jump from the 8,037 votes the saffron party had polled in 2011. Now with a candidate of Kannanthanam's stature, BJP is eyeing to improve its 2016 tally. However, both the LDF and UDF claim that the BJP's vote share would only come down this time.

Their assessment is that a section of Hindu votes will not go to Kannanthanam. The BJP's attempt to consolidate the Christian votes also may not fructify, they believe.

The BJP is projecting Kannanthanam as a pro-development leader. They cite the construction of a mini civil station in Kanjirappally as a testimony to Kannanthanam's administrative efficiency. Interestingly, Kannanthanam managed to finish the project when he was elected as an LDF-backed independent in Kanjirappally before the delimitation of the constituencies. Parts of the erstwhile Vazhoor constituency were merged with Kanjirappally during the delimitation exercise in 2008.

Jayaraj is considered to be close to the Nair Service Society (NSS). However, the UDF camp believes that he may not get all the traditional Nair votes which he used to get earlier as this time he is with the Left front. On the other hand, the LDF's claim is that Vazhackan, despite being a Christian, is not a favourite of the Church.

Jose K Mani has the backing of the Church. Jayaraj, being a staunch supporter of Jose, would benefit from that, LDF sources said.

Unease in the CPI camp

The leaders of the CPM, CPI as well as Kerala Congress(M) keep saying that their cadres have totally accepted the new coalition and are working together with the sole aim of retaining power. The UDF camp, meanwhile, believes or likes to believe that the CPI voters would not be too happy to vote for Jayaraj.

“The LDF candidate, whoever be it, was sure to win in Kanjirappally this time. The LDF would have won even if a CPI candidate was fielded. We had been prepared for that,” a local CPI leader, who was at Jayaraj's campaign rally, told Onmanorama.

On the other hand, a local Congress leader in Nedumkunnam, said many in his party would not have worked for Jayaraj this time even if he was with the UDF. “We had been fed up with him,” he said.

It's time to keenly observe the likely undercurrents and last-minute swings in Kanjirappally.