Ration kit is LDF's poll vaccine, UDF scrambles for elusive cues from result data

If data is the king, the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) ruling the state has emerged more or less unscathed in the local body polls despite a barrage of bad press in the last six months.

The LDF had clearly pinned its hopes on social security benefits – especially the free ration kits – it showered in the state in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. It worked as a super-glue between a huge chunk of voters and the LDF.

The promise of free COVID-19 vaccine in the state by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan ahead of the last phase of local body polls may have drawn flak, but it would now be construed as more of a solace for a majority.

New political alliances stitched by the LDF – notable the entry of Jose K Mani's KC (M) in the Christian heartland of Kottayam and the LJD in Wayanad – bolstered the left's prospects in these districts, hitherto considered UDF strongholds.

The LDF's election machinery did its spadework well and fielded young faces in most seats and the ploy seems to have worked in regions where it foresaw a tough contest.

It also charged a UDF-BJP nexus in the state pointing to the mounting attacks on the Pinarayi ministry by both the formations. This could have clicked with some sections of the minorities wary of the Hindutva party.

Jose K Mani's KC (M) has cemented its position in the LDF in the run-up to the assembly polls while Nationalist Congress Party, especially its Pala legislator Mani C Kappan, would have to do some rethinking.

The LDF can now go to town proclaiming its welfare measures have been embraced by an overwhelming majority.

The UDF's strangle-hold in former chief minister Oommen Chandy's home turf of Kottayam is waning, a clear cause of concern for the Congress and its veteran leader.

The Congress-led UDF's abject failure to make considerable gains in the backdrop of a perceived favourable political climate should pose a headache to the party think-tank. It needs to shun its hopes to garner default anti-LDF votes in the state and emerge winner as was the case in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. So far it was gearing up to wrest power comfortably.

Now, it needs to do the catch-up game as the LDF government and organisational machinery will unleash all its might in the next four to five months to ensure a continuation in power in the Assembly polls.

Assembly polls are due in May but do not rule out LDF opting for early Assembly polls to unsettle its political rivals.

That would give little scope for the Congress triumvirate of Oommen Chandy, Ramesh Chennithala and KPCC president Mullapally Ramachandran to even think of how to recoup.

Disgruntled allies will also be difficult to rein in for the Congress as bargaining for assembly seats starts.

The BJP has lost its sheen even in its stronghold of Thiruvanathapuram, a pointer to the deep-rooted factionalism plaguing the saffron party in the state.

The setback in the capital city should worry the saffron party more as the Congress was not even considered a viable alternative in a majority of wards pitting the NDA in a direct fight for supremacy with the LDF.

Apart from wresting Pandalam from LDF and clinging on to Palakkad, the NDA's gains are still scattered in pockets.

It is also unable to sway the masses across regions as its planks are mode or less rooted in nationalism and its radical off-shoots.

Local body polls are no more about hyperlocal priorities alone, though it may not be a barometer to gauge the political mood in the upcoming assembly elections.

Many factors come into play in deciding the winners in local body polls but with assembly polls looming it is a difficult proposition to think that the electorate will assume a different garb to appraise the state government in assembly polls.

That is unless the ruling dispensation goofs up big time.

Since nothing is absolutely ruled out in political math, the race is still on for all with LDF in pole position.

If you heard someone already talking about LDF coming back to power in assembly polls, it could be none other than E P Jayarajan, the number 2 in the Pinarayi dispensation.