COVID-19 numbers rise in Kerala, poised to grow even higher

Kottayam and Idukki, that were barely a week ago considered 'green zones', once again topped the number of fresh COVID-19 cases in Kerala on Monday. Of the 13 new cases, 10 were from these two districts; Kottayam, 6, and Idukki, 4. One positive case each was recorded in Palakkad, Malapuram and Kannur.

With cases showing a sudden and disturbing increase, both these districts have now been re-designated as 'red zones' with the most stringent social distancing curbs in place. Idukki's Vandanmedu and Erattayar, and Kottayam's Aymenem, Velloor, Thalayolaparambu and Ayarkunnam have been newly designated as hotspots.

Now, Kottayam has more active cases (17) than Kasaragod (15). Idukki is playing catch up with 14 active cases.

Brace for higher fresh cases

The number of fresh cases on Monday is the fourth highest in April, the days that threw up bigger numbers were April 1 (24), April 2 (21) and April 21 (19).

But even a number that looked shockingly high like 24 could be dwarfed in the coming days as the results of 3,000-odd samples that were collected on April 26 starts coming in. Besides taking samples from a considerably wider pool of the general population, the government has also stepped up testing among high-risk groups.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, during his sunset press briefing on Monday, said 875 samples were taken from priority groups like health care workers, persons with high social exposure, and migrant workers as part of 'sentinel surveillance'.

He said that 611 of them had tested negative. More results are awaited. But already two health workers - a nurse and a Asha worker - had tested positive, suggesting the possibility of indigenous spread outside the transmission links of foreign returnees.

Trails that go nowhere

Though the Monday numbers were slightly higher than the previous day's 11, the district administrations concerned could trace the source of all who had tested positive on Monday except one. In Kottayam, for instance, the district administration has claimed that the infection of all the five declared positive on Monday, including a doctor, has been traced back to their origins.

One is a headload worker, the primary contact of a headload worker who had tested positive four days ago. The doctor, who tested positive Monday, had treated the first headload worker. The third is a 56-year-old woman, a close relative of a nurse who had tested positive on April 26. Two positive cases, a 46-year-old scrap dealer and a 28-year-old bank employee, have Tamil Nadu connections.

The lone positive case in Kannur, too, is said to have contracted the virus from close contact with an "imported case", administrative jargon for a foreign returnee.

On April 26, however, the origin of at least five of the 11 who had tested positive were as vivid as the virus is to the naked eye. The chief minister, however, still insisted that here was no community transmission in Kerala as yet.

Stepping up surveillance

Nonetheless, the possibility of an undetected spread of the virus has already goaded the government to take proactive steps. Making testing more extensive, among both the general population and high-risk groups like health workers, is clearly an attempt to rule out the possibility.

Now there are plans to keep a closer watch on peripheral health centres like primary and community health centres and taluk hospitals to see whether local transmission is taking place. “The idea is to increase testing in regions that show an abnormal rise in patients with fever and respiratory distress,” a top health official said. It is felt that cases of pneumonia and influenza-like illnesses could in reality be COVID-19.

Bright spots are also emerging. With one patient recovering in Thiruvananthapuram on Monday, the number of active cases in the district has dwindled to zero. Now, in one week, Kerala has four 'zero districts'; Wayanad, Thrissur and Alappuzha are the three others.

Fiscal wasteland

Though Kerala has proposed the extension of the lockdown, though in a partial manner, till May 15, the chief minister said the virus and the shut down it has forced had decimated the Kerala economy. He said the unorganized and the self-employed had been affected the most.

He said a preliminary estimate said Kerala had already lost Rs 80,000 crore by way of value addition this fiscal. "If he situation persists, the losses could mount," the chief minister said.

He said the wage loss suffered by the 83.3 lakh self-employed and casual labourers was Rs 14,000 crore. The wage loss in the hotel and restaurant sectors are Rs 6000 crore and Rs 14,000 crore respectively.

Stranded in other states

Like Malayalis stranded in foreign countries, Pinarayi Vijayan said there are Malayalis trapped in other states in India. He said priority would be given to bring back eight kinds of Malayalis who had gone to other states and had found themselves trapped by the lockdown.

One, people who had gone for treatment in other states. Two, those who stay in other states but have fixed appointments for treatment in hospitals n Kerala. Three, students who had gone for education, and those who had completed their courses. Four, those who had gone for examinations and interviews. Five, those who had gone for pilgrimage, holidays or to visit he houses of relatives. Six, Malayali students in educational institutions that were closed during lockdown. Seven, those who had lost their jobs or had retired. Eight, farmers who had gone for agriculture work in places like Kudagu in Karnataka.

These people will be brought back in a phased manner, and would be subjected to stringent health screening before they cross over. Quarantine will be mandatory for all those who return.