After dropping to near zero for two consecutive days, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has shown a disheartening mini-spurt to eight on Tuesday. Of the new cases, four are in Kannur, three in Kozhikode and one in Kasaragod. This takes the total number of active cases in Kannur to 40, nearly half of that in Kasaragod where here are 88 active cases. The minor spike has come on the very day Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that relaxations after April 20 will be granted only if there is improvement in the existing situation.
Also worrisome is the fact that five of the fresh new cases are foreign returnees, all of them from Dubai. Since symptoms were expected to show up at the most by 14 days, the number of foreign returnees turning positive was expected to dry up by at least April 7. But since then, instead of folding up, foreign returnees who had been declared positive have gone up to 18.
This could either be because the maximum incubation period is longer than the 14 days laid down by the WHO. Or it could also be that foreign returnees in quarantine were reporting their symptoms late and, therefore, getting tested late. If this is the case, then there has been a clear delay in shifting these patients to hospital isolation. At a time when they should ideally be isolated in hospitals, these people were still in their homes in close proximity to their family members. Some would have even gone out thinking they had completed their quarantine period of 14 days.
On the plus side, the number of people recovering has kept its edge over fresh cases. If eight cases were found positive on the day, 13 patients were declared free of the virus and were discharged. The number who had recovered is now 211, which is 54.66 per cent of the total confirmed cases of 386. Active cases in Kerala has gradually fallen to 173.
Encouragingly, six of the recovered are from Kasaragod district, the most affected region. Then, two each in Ernakulam and Palakkad districts and one each in Kollam, Thrissur and Malappuram districts have also recovered.
The number of people admitted to hospitals in a day has also come down. From a high of nearly 125 a week ago, it has fallen to 81 on Tuesday. This, experts say is a sign of the weakening of the virus across the state. As a consequence, the number under surveillance in both homes and hospitals has also come down to 1,07,075. Just a week ago there were more than 1.5 lakh people under surveillance.
Kasaragod still has the highest number of people hospitalised: 184. Kannur (114) and Thiruvananthapuram (96) are close behind. Though Thiruvananthapuram has only two active cases, the high hospitalisation rate is a sign that even suspected cases are isolated in hospitals to snuff out even the remotest chance of spread. A policy of abundant caution that Pathanamthitta and Kottayam had earlier adopted and had reaped the gains.
However, the failure to begin rapid tests will hamper Kerala's plans to become noe of the first states in the country to break free from he rigours of the lockdown. Antibody tests, which give results quickly and can be done extensively, are inevitable if Kerala wants to rule out community transmission. At the moment, the Polymerase Chain Reaction or antigen tests are conducted only on those who had returned from outside and their immediate contacts.
Antibody tests, though not a confirmatory test, can tell whether the virus is spreading stealthily in pockets outside the surveillance network.