The curve of fresh COVID-19 cases in Kerala is showing a tendency to flatten at a low level.
For three consecutive days, instead of showing the usual corona-like spikes in between, the numbers are tapering; April 3 had nine new cases, April 4 had 11, and Sunday has seen only eight new cases. The total number of confirmed cases in Kerala is now 314. Now that 56 have recovered, and two had died, the number of people under treatment in Kerala is 256.
It is for the first time since March 19, after which the number of fresh cases more or less touched double figures daily, Kerala has shown consistently low numbers. The number of people under isolation has also come down for the first time since COVID-19 struck: If 1,71,355 were under surveillance in Kerala on April 4, on Sunday the number fell to 1,58,617.
Here is yet another statistic that could inspire a triumphant fist pump: If the last five days of March saw 104 new cases, the first five days of April has seen just 73.
Health officials, though still guarded, feel that the curve is showing a tendency towards flattening. March 22 was the day the last of the returnees from foreign countries landed in Kerala. Even if we assume that the incubation period in their immediate contact, or the time taken for the symptoms to show in them, is 14 days, their virus status would have been revealed by April 4 or 5 (Sunday).
So if there is no community transmission, as the government continues to insist, the numbers should fall even lower in the coming days. “If the trend continues for another three more days, we can quite confidently say that we have won the battle,” a top health official said.
The fresh cases that could be reported from Monday could mostly be the Tablighi participants who had returned from Nizamuddin in Delhi, and their immediate contacts. With four new Tablighi participants turning positive, the number of Tablighi returnees in Kerala with COVID-19 has risen to 10.
Of the eight new cases reported on Sunday, five are from Kozhikode. After topping the list for nine consecutive days, Kasaragod has seen just one positive case on Sunday. One positive case each has been found in Kannur and Pathanamthitta, too.
Reviving Kasaragod
Kasaragod has the highest number of confirmed cases (143) and also the largest number of hospitalised people (232) in Kerala. Kasaragod's health infrastructure is, therefore, being scaled up on a war footing.
A 26-member team has left Thiruvananthapuram Medical College on Sunday to set up a state-of-the-art Covid Care Centre in Kasaragod. The plan is to convert the administrative block of the Kasaragod Medical College into a top notch Covid Care Centre with 200 isolation beds and 20 ICUs. Most of the Kasaragod patients are now accommodated in the Pariyaram Medical College in nearby Kannur.
Yet another day has passed with no sign of community transmission. Of the five positive cases in Kozhikode, four had come from the Tablighi Jamaat in Delhi. The fifth person who tested positive in Kozhikode had come from Dubai. The man who had tested positive in Pathanamthitta had come from Delhi. The new COVID-19 cases in Kannur and Kasaragod are immediate contacts of those who had come infected from outside.
New areas of concern
However, the numbers could show a spike yet again if rapid testing, which had begun in Pothencode in Thiruvananthapuram, reveals hidden positive cases in the community. The first set of rapid testing was done on 33 Pothencode residents said to be closely associated with Abdul Azeez who had died on March 31. The rapid testing was done on Pothencode residents because the source of Abdul Azeez's infection is still now known.
Though the rapid test was done on April 4, the results have not yet been published; it takes only two-and-a-half hours for the result. If all the samples are positive, as top sources say unofficially, it is time for Kerala to seriously think about getting on with life after lockdown.
Even if Pothencode proves to be a false alarm, there are other fears to be addressed. “What if the primary contacts of Tablighi returnees, some of whom we have still not been able to trace, had infected others,” a health official said. Only rapid tests on suspected clusters will reveal the truth.
A new 'scare spot' is Keezhattur in Malappuram. An infected spiritual healer who had returned after the annual Umrah pilgrimage from Saudi Arabia had done extensive travels in the district and hosted many people at his home even after he was told to strictly quarantine himself. His 84-year-old father had already tested positive for COVID-19. Health authorities have collected 65 samples of his suspected contacts, and these results also will be published in the coming days.