Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala is set to witness significant demographic changes in a few years. The southern state's population would touch 3.69 crore by 2036, according to the National Population Commission as per an estimate based on 2016 data. However, the number of children, youth and middle-aged people would decrease in the coming years, while the number of elderly people would increase. Meanwhile, the report estimates that the country's population would reach 151.8 crore by 2036.
As per 2016 figures Kerala's population is 3.45 crore.
The average life expectancy of men in Kerala has increased from 72.99 years to 74.49 years, while the women would live up to 80.15 years. Currently, the life expectancy of women is 78.65 years. For decades Keralites have the highest life expectancy at birth in India.
The population growth rate would drop from 5.2 per cent to 1.4 per cent. However, the population density would increase to 951 people per sq km. With the growth rate decreasing and the life expectancy increasing, the average age would rise from 33.51 to 39.5 years.
Age categories
The number of children below the age of 14 would drop from the current 75 lakh to 65 lakh. The share of children, who currently form 21.8 per cent of the total population, would fall to 17.7 per cent.
The number of people in the 15-59 age bracket would reduce to 21.97 lakh from 22.39 lakh. However, the number of people above the age of 60 would increase from 50 lakh to 84 lakh.
The elderly would constitute 22.8 per cent of the total population instead of the current 14.5 per cent. This means that one out of five people in Kerala would be above the age of 60.
The current ratio of the dependent population, i.e., those aged zero to 14 and those aged 65 and older, to the working-age population would increase from 569 to 681 in 16 years owing to improved higher life expectancy at birth. (The dependency ratio is the number of dependents in a population divided by the number of people in the working age group, which is 15 to 64 years.)
Kerala would continue to be the state with the lowest infant mortality rate and further improve it from 11 to 9, the report further added.
India’s population at 151.8 crore
India's population was at 121.1 crore when the last census was taken in 2011. With the population expected to touch 151.8 crore by 2036, an increase of 25 per cent in 25 years.
Of the predicted 30.7 crore rise, 17 crore would be from the five states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh.
However, the population growth would be limited to 2.9 crore in the southern states of Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka during the same time period.