There has to be a compelling reason for the Centre to throw all political niceties to the wind and arbitrarily announce that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate the Kollam bypass on January 15.
It was not intended as cheeky oneupmanship like when BJP national president Amit Shah landed in Kannur international airport even before the date of the airport inauguration was fixed. Nor was the move fuelled by a desire to put the LDF government in its place; there were reports that the Centre had not taken kindly to the state's move to have chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan inaugurate the bypass and showcase the project as its triumph.
The prime minister's Kollam visit is dramatically ambitious in scope. Along with the Kollam bypass, Narendra Modi will inaugurate a bold political experiment, perhaps the BJP's boldest ever in the state, to sway Left-leaning upper castes to its side.
Bait for upper caste comrade
The political rally the prime minister will address in Kollam on January 15 will have party workers from three Assembly constituencies: Kollam, Mavelikkara and Alappuzha. The choice of constituencies is instructive. They are CPI(M) bastions. All three were won by the CPI(M) by huge margins in the last Assembly elections.
But what makes these 'red forts' theoretically seductive for the Sangh Parivar is the predominance of Nair community in these constituencies. Kollam district (under which falls both Kollam and Mavelikkara constituencies) has the highest percentage of Nairs in the state, over 30 per cent of the district's population. Alappuzha, too, has a fairly decisive Nair presence, nearly 20 per cent of the population.
The Sangh Parivar reading is that Nairs, whether Congress or comrade, are upset over the Supreme Court verdict allowing the entry of women of child-bearing age into Sabarimala. The BJP hypothesis is that the Nairs are worried that their faith is being trampled upon. As evidence, they point to the success of the 'Ayyappa Jyothi' event in these areas. There were reports that families of local CPI(M) leaders had taken part in the 'Jyothi'.
Modi's Achilles' heel
It is into this environment seemingly vulnerable to political change that Narendra Modi is touching down. But Modi will be limited by his position. He is the prime minister of the country, not a mere BJP functionary, and therefore cannot be openly critical of the Supreme Court verdict on Sabarimala women's entry. At best, he can be subtle. He cannot afford to be seen as disrespectful. But even while feigning courtesy, Modi can be withering. Recently, he told an interviewer that the judgment of the lone dissenting judge in the Sabarimala case should be read carefully. Nothing more. In spite of the amazing ways in which he can play with words, Sabarimala can be used only sparingly.
Quota boon
But the prime minister will have at his disposal a drum of sorts that he can play to his heart's content. The 10 per cent reservation for the poor among the forward castes. For a community that has been deeply hurt by the Sabarimala verdict, here is balm in the form of 10 per cent economic reservation. NSS general secretary Sukumaran Nair has already shot him a letter of gratitude. Trust Narendra Modi to transform himself into the messiah of the upper caste poor in Kollam.
Kollam MP N K Premachandran said it would be wishful thinking on the part of the BJP. “Kollam has a strong working class base. Take for instance the cashew workers. A large percentage of them are from the Nair community, and they are soaked in the trade union movement. The BJP cannot hope to play its caste card here,” he said. Kollam MLA Mukesh, too, laughs away the BJP game plan. “Socialist thinking is deep-rooted in this area. Caste and religion are non-issues here. The BJP cannot hope to polarise people in the name of caste here,” he said.
However, the BJP is a party that keeps trying. The inauguration of the bypass offers Narendra Modi the ideal platform to make his political pitch. It has become a habit for the prime minister to sneak in his political message during the inaugural of big ticket infrastructure projects. The strategy is to keep one thing constant even while playing politics. His image as 'vikas purush'.