It looks as if we in Kerala have transformed into mythological beings. Where else but in the epics can we come across populations that have suddenly forgotten the greatest tragedy that has ever befallen them. In the great books it could be a strange fruit or the waters of a mysterious lake that induces this collective blankness.
In Kerala, could the mythical intoxicant have been a heady concoction of faith and politics? The plains below sea level in the state were still wet when Kerala turned its attention to a temple that housed a celibate deity on a hill some 1,574 feet above sea level. Ever since, it was as if the August deluge was just a bad dream that we had easily got over.
Here are some facts that might hopefully tell the Kerala society that it is not the case, that the wreckage has largely been left unattended.
Scale of Disaster
Almost fully destroyed were 1,259 of the state's 1,664 villages. Around 54 lakh people were directly affected, 14 lakh were displaced, 433 lost their lives. Nearly 74.5 lakh workers, 22.8 lakh migrants, 34,800 persons working in micro, small and medium enterprises and 35,000 plantation workers (majority of them women), have been displaced from employment. Thousands of casual workers and daily wagers – especially those in the coir, handloom and construction sectors – have suffered wage loss for 45 days or more. Around 67 lakh people, or 20 per cent of the state's population, lost access to piped water. Nearly one lakh household latrines were substantially damaged, affecting around 4 lakh people. Over 1.75 lakh buildings have been damaged either fully or partially, potentially affecting 7.5 lakh people. Over 10,000 km of roads are waiting to be repaired.
And then there is the non-quantifiable emotional cost in the form of shock, psychosocial damage, distress, trauma and insecurity.
Embalmed Destruction
This picture of devastation is more or less intact. It is as though the state now exists as a museum of devastation. There are people still in relief camps. Some of the houses, schools and anganwadis have the look of archaeological ruins. New jobs have not been created. Damages suffered by small traders and businesses are still to be assessed. The promise of Rs 10 lakh interest-free loan to flood-affected small traders remains just that: a vague promise. Global NGOs who have come forward to rebuild houses have been asked to wait for no particular reason. Over 4,500 fishermen in 669 boats risked their lives and livelihoods to save at least 65,000 lives. Not much have been done for them either.
After 'Salary Challenge', Tax Shock
Reconstruction, therefore, is 2019's burden. But where is the money? The UN's Post Disaster Needs Assessment said Rs 31,000 crore, more than even the state's annual plan of Rs 29,150 crore for 2018-19, was necessary for recovery. We have not managed to mobilise even a fraction of it. The Centre has promised Rs 600 crore. As on December 27, the Chief Minister's Distress Relief Fund has received Rs 3,000 crore, and the flow has been coming down to a trickle. The crowdfunding initiative, Rebuild Kerala, has brought in virtually nothing. Even the Nava Kerala lottery is not fetching enough.
So in 2019, Finance Minister T M Thomas Isaac will have no choice but to do the unthinkable in an election year: introduce new taxes. Already, the revenue deficit, the largeness of which can send governments into paroxysms of panic, is estimated to bloat to Rs 31,332 crore. This is two-and-a-half times the budget estimate of Rs 12,860 crore that Isaac has set for 2018–19.
The government is mulling a new tax on vacant houses that could be levied by local bodies. It is estimated that there are about 1.2 million vacant houses and flats in Kerala. It is said that an additional tax of Rs 2 per square feet per year would yield tax revenue of Rs 220 crore. Grandeur, too, could be taxed. Perhaps a tax on the construction of houses larger than say 3,000 square feet.
Taxation could also be used as a tool to give 'Nava Keralam' a touch of green. The UN has recommended the introduction of a 'Carbon tax'. The State Budget, expected on February 1, might introduce a carbon tax on building materials with high carbon footprint such as cement, steel, glass, aluminium and so on. The second candidate for carbon tax is motor vehicles.
Lurking Dangers
Even if it is assumed that reconstruction happens substantively in 2019, it still does not leave Kerala safe. Nearly 14.5 per cent of the state's land area is prone to floods, and the proportion is as high as 50 per cent for certain districts. Landslides are a major hazard along the Western Ghats in Wayanad, Kozhikode, Idukki and Kottayam districts. That Kerala is also one of the most densely populated states (860 persons per square kilometres) makes it even worse. Drought-like conditions are also common during the summer months; there were 66 drought years between 1881 and 2000.
New Habits and a Fresh Deadline
So for recovery to be sustainable, 2019 should see a change in habits. Rivers have to be given more room and space to lower their flood levels. From 2019 on, any mention of Western Ghats should stop worrying politicians. After the devastation of the floods it must have become a bit more easier to convince the people that the Western Ghats have suffered serious degradation. It is also a fact that the state's monsoon-fed rivers originate inside these tropical rain forests.
Land, too, should be less smothered. If agriculture is turning progressively non-profitable, it could be left undisturbed like forests. "Paddy lands could be conserved and managed as wetlands for ground water recharge, biodiversity conservation and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions," the UN's Post Disaster Needs Assessment report said.
Construction, the state's most active sector and the cause of many of its ecological troubles, needs to be tempered in 2019. Buildings should not be allowed in potential hazard zones. The government has to reconstruct 17,316 new houses. Besides, 1,600 schools, 114 anganwadis, and 41 hospitals, too, have to come up anew.
There has to be at least one non-negotiable principle. Families will have to be shifted if their destroyed homes were not in the right location, that is in plains and slopes that made it vulnerable to floods and landslides. Once that is settled, disaster-resilient building techniques can be explored. It is said that there are about 40 organisations in the state working on proven alternative housing technologies.
As the year ends, here is one question that should bother both the 'namajapa' chanters and 'Women's Wall' backers more than what happens in Sabarimala: "Can we reconstruct the 17,316 destroyed houses before the south-west monsoon sets in by June."