2018 has been the most cataclysmic year for Kerala. But it is also perhaps the most dominant as it seems to have set the agenda, if not for the rest of the years, at least for a couple of years starting from 2019.
Like humans with self respect, no year is happy to be in the shadow of another year. Each would like to carve an identity of its own, spring its own surprises. 2019, too, will have its novelties. Yet, 2018 was so transformative that 2019 will have no choice but to follow the blueprint drawn up by its predecessor. This will be especially so for the way politics is going to be played out in the state in 2019.
2018 has already decided what the most prestigious political championship in 2019 would be. The Sabarimala trophy. Primary competitions had begun soon after the September 28 verdict of the Supreme Court that allowed the entry of women of child-bearing age into Sabarimala. The Lok Sabha elections, expected in April-May, will act as more or less the decider.
Two-sided Triangle
The gameplans of the leading players have been laid out for all to see. The LDF led by the CPM is all for implementing the verdict. The Sangh Parivar prefers shutting down the temple over the entry of women. The UDF led by the Congress, too, does not want women to enter, but are still unsure how to go about articulating it.
The LDF and the Sangh Parivar have already shown signs that they will escalate their respective positions to militant levels. Therefore, in terms of strategy, it is only the Congress that can throw up some surprise in 2019, if at all they can.
Golden Gaffe
In fact, the 'championship' has opened up opportunities for at least two main formations. BJP state president P Sreedharan Pillai has put across his party's thinking in the most blunt fashion. He called the agitation a "golden opportunity", as if he simply could not mask the delight he had felt when the Supreme Court said all women could enter Sabarimala. Pillai made it sound as if in the misery of the faithful was the jackpot. Even the RSS had cringed at the remark. 2019 will see the BJP trying to regain its innocence in Sabarimala.
Hartal-free Kerala
One way would be to desist from calling another 'hartal' in 2019. The BJP had lately become so hyper-aggressive that it found even the suicide of a man who had no links to the Sabarimala agitation reason enough to declare a state-wide 'hartal'. This was the sixth 'hartal' called by a Sangh Parivar outfit in two-and-a-half-months. The last, on December 14, provoked so much fury that trade bodies and the tourism sector in a major show of revolt had vowed never to shut down if anyone called for a 'hartal'.
The BJP's overenthusiasm to grab the "golden opportunity" might have a positive fallout. In 2019, political parties and other organisations will think twice before declaring a 'hartal'.
Floods be Damned
Nonetheless, Sabarimala will be the BJP's single-point agenda going into the Lok Sabha polls. The other day when BJP spokesperson B Gopalakrishnan called a press conference to brief the media about the political plans of the state unit of the party, Sabarimala alone was the talking point. When he was asked whether the post-flood reconstruction efforts had ceased to worry the BJP, Gopalakrishnan said: "Of course, we did discuss about the floods. But no plans were finalised, that is why I didn't mention the issue here."
A clear sign that helping Kerala back on its feet after the floods, or making Pinarayi Vijayan walk the talk on flood relief, will be the least of BJP's concerns during 2019.
Lure of Nostalgia
For the CPM, the Sabarimala agitation is a short cut to reclaim its progressive credentials. Its red in recent years reminded more of violence than revolution. Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan's master stroke was to link the entry of women into Sabarimala to early 20th century renaissance in Kerala society. It is another matter that the Communists had no role in the social reform movements of the late 1920s and thirties.
What really counts is the success of positioning the Left as the progressive pro-women alternative to dark regressive forces represented by the BJP. The strategy looks good on paper. The CPM-led Left can rightfully take credit for the political and economic empowerment the women in the state now enjoy. The People's Plan and Kudumbashree movements were midwifed by Left governments. (NITI Aayog has now found that Kerala is the most gender equal state in the country.) It should have been easy for Pinarayi Vijayan to build on this.
Un-Marxian Truths
But ideological corruption threatens to undo the CPM's claims to gender sensitivity. For one, the party has a dubious record in dealing with sexual predators within its own ranks. Even the central leadership of the party has disapproved of the way in which P K Sasi MLA, who was accused of sexual abuse by a woman DYFI member, was virtually given a clean chit by the state unit. Questions will be asked, even after the 'women's wall' is erected on January 1.
A section of feminists have also been repulsed by the people Pinarayi Vijayan has chosen to conduct the 'Women's Wall'. One of them, C P Sugathan, had made the shockingly misogynistic remark that Hadiya, the medical student who converted and married a Muslim youth, should be torn into half for spurning the religion she was born into. And Vellappally Natesan, the chairman of the 'Women's Wall' organising committee, is widely considered a symbol of casteist patriarchy. Some of Natesan's statements, especially the one he made after a Muslim youth sacrificed his life to save others trapped in a manhole, were more fanatic than even that of the far right.
However, do not expect Pinarayi Vijayan to be apologetic in 2019. He will carry along all the contradictions and still go full steam ahead with the renaissance slogan. Along with the 'Wall', he is carefully erecting a new image. The hope is, all the contradictions will not add up to something that will eclipse this reformist image.
Rise of the Wonder Woman
The plus is, there could be something for the women in this Sabarimala-triggered enthusiasm in the chief minister. Gender issues will dominate the symposiums and seminar the Left will be organising across the state in 2019. There will be spirited discussions on new-age women's issues like dowry, workplace harassment and freedom of choice. The conservative-liberal dichotomy, seen most vividly during the early 20th century reform period, will become sharper in 2019. History has shown that Kerala has genetic preference for the liberal.
Already, Kerala Sastra Sahithya Parishad has begun a campaign to erase orthodox notions surrounding menstruation. 2019 could be the year Hindu women will begin to feel free of the orthodoxy-induced shame of menstruation.
A Distant Third
The Congress, which is known for the Nehruvian 'left of centre' stance, could be the biggest loser in 2019. The Left and the Sangh Parivar are drawing up high-profile events to steamroll their respective agendas. The UDF is relatively out of sight.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi, though he is for the entry of women into Sabarimala, has already stressed a 'right of centre' policy by being unapologetically open about his Hindu faith. It seems to be working for Rahul. For Ramesh Chennithala and his cohorts, it will not. The Congress in the state, if they fail to deflect the state's preoccupation with Sabarimala, is in danger of looking like a poor man's idea of the BJP.