Analysis | Clean sweep big relief for Siddaramaiah, setback for BJP, JD(S)
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The bypoll results in three Assembly constituencies in Karnataka on Saturday were a major relief to the embattled ruling Congress. The party won all the seats, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—comprising the BJP and the Janata Dal (Secular-JDS)—biting the dust even in two constituencies considered their bastions.
The verdict came as a big shocker to the BJP and the JD(S), which had made the Congress government's alleged corruption and appeasement politics its poll plank. Both parties had claimed it would be a referendum on the 18-month-old Siddaramaiah government, which is embroiled in scams of multi-crore embezzlement of funds in the Karnataka Maharshi Valmiki Scheduled Tribes Development Corporation and the alleged irregularities in the allotment of sites by the Mysuru Urban Development Authority (MUDA) in which Siddaramaiah's wife BM Parvathi was a beneficiary. She has since returned to the sites, but an inquiry by the Lokayukta is on where Siddaramaiah is the first accused.
With a good victory margin, the Congress won the high-profile constituency Channapatna in Ramanagara district, 60 km from Bengaluru, Shiggaon in Haveri district of Kittur Karnataka and Sandur in Ballari district of Kalyan Karnataka. The bypolls were a proxy battle fought by two former chief ministers HD Kumaraswamy, now Union minister and Basavaraj Bommai, Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar, his brother former MP DK Suresh, Labour Minister Santosh Lad and Independent MLA, mining czar G Janardhan Reddy in their respective constituencies.
The byelections were necessitated after Kumaraswamy, representing Channapatna, won from the Mandya Lok Sabha seat, Basavaraj Bommai, who was the MLA from Shiggaon, bagged the Haveri and E Tukaram from Sandur, was elected from Ballari.
In the byelections, the Congress wrested the Channapatna seat from the JD(S), with party candidate CP Yogeeshwara trouncing JD(S) Nikhil Kumaraswamy (son of Kumaraswamy) by a margin of 26,929 votes. This was the third electoral defeat of Nikhil in a row after he lost the Mandya Lok Sabha seat in 2019 and the Ramanagara Assembly seat in the 2023 polls.
Basavaraj Bommai of the BJP had made Shiggaon constituency his bastion since 2008 and had fielded his son Bharat Bommai this time. The latter, who was set to make his electoral debut, lost to Congress's Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan by 13,446 votes. In Sandur, a reserved constituency which has been a Congress stronghold since 1957 with a break in 1985 and 2004, Tukaram's wife, E Annapoorna, defeated BJP's Bangaru Hanumanthu.
The victory in the three constituencies has strengthened the position of Siddaramaiah amid talks of a change of guard following the MUDA scam. Shivakumar, waiting in the wings to take over from Siddaramaiah and giving the entire credit to the CM for the victory, indicates that he will bide his time to get the post. The verdict also gives a free hand to Siddaramaiah to revamp his cabinet, which is a long-pending exercise by dropping the non-performers.
The results have once again indicated that the other backward classes, minorities, scheduled castes and tribes continue to be the vote bank of the Congress with a chunk of support from the Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities.
The Channapatna result has been a big blow for former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda's family as the survival of the JD(S) in the old Mysuru area, where the Vokkaliga community is in a good number, is in question. The entire family campaigned for Nikhil, and 92-year-old Gowda also addressed meetings. Kumaraswamy was looking to make Channapatna his base when he decided to return to state politics. The split in the Vokkaliga votes in Channapatna is a pointer that the community did not stand by him.
Minister BZ Zameer Ahmed Khan's racist comment, calling Kumaraswamy 'Kaalia', had caused jitters in the Congress, with apprehensions that the Vokkaliga community would boycott the party. The result indicated that the Congress managed to get the community's support, but the biggest helping hand came from the Muslim community, who voted en bloc for the party.
The BJP loss in Shiggaon and Sandur has given leverage to state party unit President BY Vijayendra's baiters, who have been questioning his leadership. With the JD(S) future looking bleak, BJP sources said the issue of its alliance with the party should also be looked at when it has lost its hold in the Vokkaliga belt. Reacting to the bypolls results, the opposition leader in the Assembly R Ashoka said the Congress won it on money power.
Speaking to the media, Siddaramaiah said the bypolls contested between the Congress party's fight for truth and the NDA's lies. "The Opposition parties had indulged in a negative campaign against the government's programmes. Ultimately, truth triumphed,'' he added. Shivakumar, also the state Congress chief, said the Congress tally in the Assembly had increased from 135 to 138, attributing the victory to Siddaramaiah's leadership.
AICC general secretary in charge of Karnataka Randeep Singh Surjewala, in his reaction, said: "It's a victory of Congress guarantees and the government's policies besides the leadership of Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar."