Analysis | Tough to stay away from power, Haryana poll result leaves Jats in a spot

By the time Haryana holds its assembly elections in 2029, the largest caste group, the Jats, making up around 25% of the population, would have shifted from predominantly supporting Congress to backing either the ruling party or anyone capable of bringing them closer to power.

Bhim S Dahiya, author of Power Politics in Haryana: A View from the Bridge, says Jats cannot stay far from power for long. If excluded for extended periods, they will struggle and fight to regain proximity to the political power centre.

In the 2024 assembly elections, Jats rallied behind former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda from the Deswali belt of Rohtak-Jhajjar-Sonipat. Unfortunately, Congress lost five of six seats in Sonipat, including the key Bahadurgarh seat in Jhajjar.

While Hooda, a dominant Jat leader in northern Haryana, helped Congress retain all seats in Rohtak, losing five Sonipat seats and one in Jhajjar exposed vulnerabilities in Hooda's so-called Midas touch in Jat-dominated regions.

In the recently-held elections, out of the 90 assembly seats, Congress secured 37 — nine short of a majority — while BJP achieved a clear majority with 48 seats. Until 10 am on October 10, the day of the vote counting, few believed Congress wouldn’t form the government or that Hooda wouldn’t become the 12th Chief Minister of Haryana. Previous Jat leaders who held power as Chief Ministers include Devi Lal, Bansi Lal, Om Prakash Chautala, Hukam Singh, and Bhupinder Singh Hooda (2005–2009).

Jats started drifting away from BJP in Haryana after the violence during protests in 2016 demanding reservation for the community when many people died and several others faced FIRs and jail.

Again in 2020 farmers' agitation on the borders of Haryana for 13 months against three farm laws turned Jats against BJP government at the Centre. The Centre's Agnipath scheme, which cut short the job term of Army aspirants to four years, again was not taken in good spirit by the Jats and the farming community.

After these developments, Jat community started mobilizing support for Hooda, who is politically active and was in power for 10 years before the BJP came to power in the state. Many started investing their resources in Hooda and became claimants of Congress party tickets from respective assembly constituencies.

Taking advantage of their anger against BJP, Hooda got their energy invested in 'Haryana Maange Hisaab' campaign to peak the sentiment against the ruling saffron party. It also took advantage in Lok Sabha polls where the party managed to win 5 of the 10 seats in the state.

However, many rebels turned foes when they were denied tickets in the recent assembly polls and they threw their hat in the ring as independent candidates. They won more votes than the defeat margin in at least 17 seats where BJP won due to Congress rebels.

For example, in Kalka, the margin between BJP and Congress candidate is 11000 while the rebel took 32000 votes. In Pundi, Congress candidate came third and the Congress rebel got 40000 votes and he lost by 2000 margin. In Rai segment, margin of loss is 10000 while party rebel got 12000, in Gohana, the defeat margin is 10000 while rebel got 29000 votes.

In Dadri, defeat margin is 2000 (Rebel 6000), Tigaon, Congress came third. Congress rebel got 57000 votes and he lost by 37000 votes, in Ambala Cantonment, Congress came third, rebel got 53000 votes and she lost by 7000 votes, Assandh, defeat margin is 2000 (rebel 16000), Uchana Kalan, margin 39 votes (Rebel 32000), Badhra, margin is 7500 (Rebel 2700), Mahendragarh, margin is 2000 (rebel 21000), Sohna, margin is 11000 (rebel 70000), ⁠Ballabhgarh, Congress came fourth, rebel came second and received 44000 votes and lost by 17000 votes, Dabwali, margin was 610 (rebel 2000), Rania, margin is 4000 (rebel 36000), Bahadurgarh, Congress rebel won the seat as an independent. Congress candidate came third on this seat.

Jat leadership vacuum
Comrade Inderjit Singh, a CPM leader and vice-president of the All India Kisan Sabha, stated that no single caste can come to power alone. However, Congress holds an advantage with the Jat community's backing under Bhupinder Singh Hooda.

This time, Congress attracted votes from all communities, leading to victories in urban seats as well. Notably, Jat's votes were also split among independent candidates, such as Rajesh Joon, who won Bahadurgarh, which resulted in Congress losses.

In the last election, Hooda had strong Jat community support and full autonomy from the Congress central leadership. It remains uncertain whether Hooda, who will be 82 by the 2029 elections, will enjoy the same freedom.

Other prominent Jat leaders are also fading from the political scene — former CM Om Prakash Chautala is already distanced from active politics, while his son Abhay Singh Chautala suffered a major defeat in Ellenabad, Sirsa. Ajay Chautala’s son, Dushyant Chautala, was also badly defeated in Ucchana in Jind district.

Even former Union Minister Birender Singh’s son, another notable Jat leader, lost in Ucchana by a narrow 32-vote margin on a Congress ticket. While Hooda managed to retain all four Rohtak seats, the losses in Sonipat and Jind districts have raised doubts about his continued influence over Jat voters.

Former Congress MLA Shamsher Singh Gogi, who lost the Asandh constituency, was quick to blame Hooda for the party's defeat. He argued that the narrative focused too much on a "Hooda sarkar" rather than a "Congress sarkar," which alienated SC voters.

The sidelining of senior Congress leader Kumari Selja, particularly in ticket distribution, and the failure to consider her as a chief ministerial candidate also upset the Dalit community.

Despite Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s attempts to display unity between Hooda and Selja during rallies, where he had them join hands, the gesture failed to resonate. Additionally, Gandhi brought back Ashok Tanwar, a Dalit leader who had left Congress for the BJP, on the last day of the campaign, but this too failed to sway Dalit voters.

Experts believe that Jat voters need to recognize that they cannot form a government on their own and should be more inclusive of other caste groups. "Had Hooda allowed more space to other parties in the INDIA parties and gave Kumari Selja her rightful share, the outcome might have been different," said an observer.

They added that Congress, which enjoys the advantage of Jat support, must reinvent itself by becoming more inclusive and focusing on livelihood issues affecting other communities as well.