Raipur: After the completion of the first phase of polling in 20 assembly constituencies of Chhattisgarh, the ruling Congress and the BJP are locked in a fierce battle for the remaining 70 seats. Both the parties appear to be evenly matched in several of the remaining assembly segments that will go to polls in the second phase on November 17.
In nearly two dozen constituencies, where other parties such as the regional Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (J) and the BSP-Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP) alliance have fielded their candidates, forcing a triangular contest, the battle is too close. Besides, ruling party and BJP rebels have also jumped into the fray in a couple of constituencies.
Much before the elections, there was a strong perception that the ruling Congress had a comfortable edge over the BJP, which looked demoralized during the past five years sitting in Opposition. However, the BJP seems to have woven its strategies well, including the selection of candidates, to take on the formidable Congress led by Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel.
Over the past fortnight, the Opposition was able to build a perception that it may have been down for a long time but not out. The credit for this change goes to Union Home Minister Amit Shah. The Union minister has visited the state several times before and during the elections, stayed back to put things in order.
Electioneering is at its peak, but without much noise or the usual hype associated with the poll campaign in other states. Perhaps, it is the first time that there are no banners, no posters, and no noise – a completely peaceful election, indicating that there is no wave in favour of any party. However, both the parties and candidates are spending a lot of money. Some videos of candidates distributing money among voters have also surfaced.
The lacklustre poll campaign, for the first phase of elections in 20 constituencies and until now in the remaining segments, picked up pace after the Enforcement Directorate (ED) released a statement linking Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel's name with the controversial Mahadev online betting app scandal, alleging that an accused had given a statement saying that the CM was paid Rs 508 crore.
The ED had also maintained that they have arrested a "courier" and seized more than Rs 5 crore, allegedly arranged by promoters of Mahadev Book App in Dubai, meant for the state's ruling party for spending in the elections.
The BJP lapped up the issue and sought to turn it into an election issue. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his two public meetings, accused the Congress of not even sparing the name of "Mahadev" from corruption, saying that its government would not spare those involved in such corruption.
While the BJP leaders are using this scam during election rallies, Congress has also hit back, claiming that the ED, IT, and other Central agencies are being misused by the BJP government at the Centre to tarnish the image of Baghel. However, the online betting scandal and other scams being raised have not gained much traction, and the voters seem to be keeping their cards close to their chest.
Both Baghel and his deputy T S Singhdeo are confident that Congress would retain power with a comfortable margin. However, BJP vice-president and three-time Chief Minister Raman Singh says that there was a silent undercurrent in favour of his party – like it was in the 2003 elections when the BJP overthrew the then Ajit Jogi government to capture power in the state’s maiden assembly elections.
In the first phase of polling in 20 constituencies, 78% of voters exercised their franchise, slightly higher than the past elections. In the 2018 Congress wave, the grand old party had won 19 out of these 20 seats, bringing down the 15-year-long Raman Singh government.
A trend in tribal Bastar, comprising 12 constituencies, is that when tribal votes are cast, they tend to go in one direction, whether it's BJP or the Congress. In 2003, the BJP got 9 seats, and Congress got 3 in Bastar. In 2008, the BJP got 11, and Congress 1. In 2013, BJP got 4, and Congress 8. In 2018, the situation completely reversed with 11 seats going to Congress and 1 to BJP. The combined polling percentage of these 20 constituencies this year is almost equivalent to last time.
After the first phase, the Congress, with its present strength of 71 MLAs, is on backfoot while the BJP has become more aggressive in its attack on Baghel.
Both parties released their election manifestos right before the campaigning ended for the first phase of elections. The Congress brought out about 17 declarations, with an emphasis on farm loan waivers and support prices for paddy.
The BJP promised to purchase paddy, 21 quintals per acre, from farmers at Rs 3,100 per quintal and to make a single payment. The Congress responded a day later with Rs 3,200 and a promise of farm loan waivers.
While the impact of these promises was less significant in the Maoist-hit tribal areas, these promises could impact the voters in the state's central plains with 64 seats where the majority of the population is into paddy cultivation.
As like in the 2018 elections, Congress is heavily banking on farmers, the poor, and landless people for whom it had unveiled a string of populist schemes, mainly for providing them direct cash transfers to their accounts.
The tribal Surguja in North Chhattisgarh is another point of focus as the Congress had won all the 14 seats in the region. The BJP could make some inroads in the region where senior Congress leader and Deputy Chief Minister T S Singhdeo wields considerable influence.
He is locked in a multi-cornered contest with BJP’s Rajesh Agrawal from Ambikapur constituency. Singhdeo’s clout in the party might increase if the majority of the seats in the region is retained by the Congress.
Baghel is contesting for Patan seat, with his nephew and BJP MP Vijay Baghel and JCC (J) president Amit Jogi, son of former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi, as his main rivals. Other prominent candidates testing their electoral luck during the second phase are state BJP president Arun Sao (Lormi), Assembly Speaker Dr Charan Das Mahant (Sakti), Union Minister of State for Tribal Welfare Renuka Singh Sarpota (Bharatpur-Sonhat-ST), former Chief Minister late Ajit Jogi's wife and sitting JCC (J) MLA Renu Jogi (Kota) and daughter-in-law Richha Jogi (JCC-J Akaltara).
Elections in Chhattisgarh have always been close, except in 2018 when the Congress won the polls with a landslide victory. While the difference in vote percentage between BJP and Congress was a wafer-thin 0.7% in 2013, the difference in vote share between the winner and runner-up was 10% for the first time in 2018.