The Congress is likely to spring a major surprise in the Telangana assembly elections to be held on November 30.
According to the Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey, the Congress may see a 10 per cent vote share swing in its favour to 38.4 per cent from 28.4 per cent in 2018.
Such a massive swing could give the Congress seats in the 52-58 range, up from 19 in 2018. This, however, will not be enough for an absolute majority in a House of 119 seats.
Chief Minister K C Chandrasekhar Rao's Bharat Rashtra Samithi (formerly Telangana Rashtra Samithi), which had won the two elections held after Telangana was created in 2014, could witness an equally heavy swing against it.
The BRS vote share could deplete to 37.5 per cent from a high of 47 per cent in 2018. From 88 seats, the BRS number in the Telangana assembly could drop to the 47-52 seats range in this elections.
Interestingly, the survey predicts major gains for the BJP, with its vote share set to move up to 10.2 per cent, a swing of over 3 per cent. The party, which has just a lone MLA now, could find its representation in the Telangana assembly increased to between six and eight. In the 2014 elections, the BJP had five seats.
The other crucial presence in the Telangana poll fray, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), could suffer a marginal erosion in its vote bank -- from 3 per cent to 2.6 per cent. Still, the survey shows that the AIMIM can possibly retain its seven seats. The AIMIM had won seven seats in both the two earlier elections.
It also looks like Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is becoming increasingly marginal in Telangana. The 15 seats it held in the first elections fell to two in 2014, its vote share dropping steeply to 3.5 per cent in 2018 from 14.7 percent in 2014. The survey shows its vote share could shrink even further this time.
Therefore, for the Congress to wrest power or the BRS to retain power, these parties would require the support of either the BJP or the AIMIM.
The Congress has been gradually increasing its vote share in Telangana -- 25.2 per cent in 2014 and 28.4 per cent in 2018. Now, it is predicted to improve its vote share quite substantially to 38.4 per cent.
In the last two elections after the formation of Telangana, in 2014 and 2018, KCR's BRS was dominant, increasing its vote share from 34.3 per cent in 2014 to 46.9 per cent in 2014. According to the survey, this is poised to fall to 37.5 per cent.
Telangana will vote on November 30. The sample size of the survey is 11,831.