Manorama News-VMR survey | Anti-incumbency in play, Congress may wrest power in MP

In a huge relief for the Congress, the Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey has projected a vote share of 42.11 per cent for the party, up from 40.89 per cent in 2018, in the assembly elections to be held on November 17.

This projected swing of 1.22 per cent in its favour could improve Congress's tally from 114 in 2018 to the 120-130 seats range. In a House of 230, 116 is the simple majority mark.
(In March 2020, 22 sitting Congress MLAs had crossed over to the BJP. Congress Chief Minister Kamal Nath had resigned and the BJP's Shivraj Singh Chouhan returned to the helm.)

Congress's gain will be mostly at the expense of the ruling BJP, whose vote share is projected to drop marginally to 40.3 per cent from 41.02 per cent in 2018. The anti-incumbency vote is likely to cost the BJP dear and its seat tally is likely to fall to the 95-105 range from 109 in 2018.

The fatigue factor seems to have finally come into play against the long-serving Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Chouhan has been ruling Madhya Pradesh since 2003, except for a 15-month stretch between 2018 and 2020 when Kamal Nath was the Chief Minister.

Madhya Pradesh elections are bipolar in nature with the BJP pitted against the Congress. Since 2003, the BJP has won the largest vote share in every Assembly election in Madhya Pradesh. In the 2018 Assembly elections, even when the Congress secured a larger number of seats, the BJP still recorded a higher vote share -- 41 per cent as opposed to the winning Congress's 40.9 per cent.

The BJP's highest vote share was in 2013, when it secured 44.9 per cent votes. And when the Congress had won, before 2003, it had done so with slender margins.

Madhya Pradesh will vote on November 17. A total of 13,212 respondents participated in the survey.