Manorama News-VMR survey | Congress may retain power in Chhattisgarh despite fall in vote share

The ruling Congress party in Chhattisgarh is set to take a hit in the coming assembly elections with the Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey showing an adverse swing against it.

The survey results show the Congress slipping but not low enough for the BJP to wrest power.
There could be a near 2 per cent (1.94%) swing against the Congress, causing its vote share to fall to 41.1 per cent from 43.04 per cent. This negative swing could shrink its seats to the 53-58 range from the existing 68 seats.

For the BJP, the survey predicts a near 4 per cent (3.8%) swing in favour. Its vote share swelling to 36.8 per cent from 32.97 per cent in 2018 and the number of its seats rising to the 28-34 range from the existing 15.

The vote share of 'others' (Janata Congress Chhattisgarh and BSP) is also shown to dwindle. From seven seats in 2018, their number could fall to 4.

In a House of 90 seats, 46 is the simple majority mark. Congress Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, though his popularity could be dented, seems poised to buck the anti-incumbency trend.

Chattisgarh was held by the BJP for three successive terms before the state was won by the Congress in 2018. Interestingly, the previous three elections -- 2003, 2008 and 2013 -- had produced near similar results, with the BJP and the Congress repeating their performance, right down to the number of seats won; the BJP securing 50, 50 and 49 seats in 2003, 2008 and 2013 and the Congress winning 37, 38 and 39 seats in these years.

The BJP had its biggest vote share in 2013 -- 41 per cent. And its lowest was in 2018 -- 33 per cent.

Chhattisgarh was formed out of Madhya Pradesh in 2000. Chhattisgarh will vote in two phases on November 7 and 17. The sample size of the survey is 11,507.