The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey in five states, where assembly elections will be held between November 7 and 30, has projected absolute majority for the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and a slight reversal but still a back-to-back victory in Chhattisgarh.
Though the survey results predict a Congress surge in Telangana and Mizoram, the party even becoming the single largest in the former, both these states are likely to throw up hung assemblies. According to the survey, the BJP would wrest power in Rajasthan. The counting for all the states will be held on December 3.
In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is likely to win 120-130 seats in a 230-strong House. BJP is set to suffer a loss with its tally going down to 95-105 from the present 109.
The Congress, according to the survey, is likely to face anti-incumbency trouble in Rajasthan and its tally may come down to 67-75 range from the existing 100. The surge in favour of the saffron party may help BJP win 110-118 seats in a House of 200.
An adverse swing may result in loss of seats for the Congress in Chhattisgarh with the party winning only 53-58 constituencies from the existing 68.
However, this may not help the BJP win majority in a House of 90 and the saffron party's tally is likely to go up to 28-34 seats from its present 15.
The survey predicted a massive swing in favour of the Congress in Telangana with the party set to win 52-58 seats. At present, it has 19 seats in a House of 119.
Chief Minister K C Chandrasekhar Rao's Bharat Rashtra Samithi (formerly Telangana Rashtra Samiti) will see a huge fall in its vote share and may win only 47-52 seats. The ruling party has 88 seats now. The BJP, which has a lone MLA in the House now, may increase its tally to 6-8.
As per the survey, Mizoram will also witness anti-incumbency vote, giving trouble to ruling Mizo National Front-BJP alliance. As a result MNF's tally may dip to 11-15 from 27.
The Congress is likely to improve its tally to the 12-16 range from 4 in a House of 40. Main Opposition party Zoram People's Movement may also increase its tally from the existing 8 to the 10-14 range.