Political analyst Yogendra Yadav, who has also championed the cause of farmers in the agitation against the Centre's controversial farm laws, had predicted a BJP win in the recent Uttar Pradesh polls. Yadav speaks about the BJP's triumph the major reasons for it, the factors that led to the saffron surge in India's most populous state and how the AAP got the mandate to rule Punjab. Excerpts from an interview:
You had predicted a BJP win in the Uttar Pradesh elections? What are the factors that led to this conclusion?
The voters were confused. They said the employment scenario was bad, inflation was high and their families were struggling. Many people had died during covid without medicines. Normally in a situation like this, people will blame the government and the anti-incumbency factor will come into play. But in UP, people said they will not blame the government. I was very surprised. My sense is that BJP has managed to create a relationship with the electorate in which a vast majority backed it even if it governs very poorly and their families suffer. Why is this? There are two elements. One is pure communalism. BJP has managed to create a "We vs They" mentality. The second part is BJP has been able to present itself as the inheritors of Nationalism. Also, Akhilesh started his campaign very late and the communication thread was missing.
Was the Priyanka magic missing?
The problem in election analysis is that we believe someone who succeeded got everything right and someone who failed got everything wrong. This is poor analysis. The election had become bipolar. In a bipolar election as you know in Kerala with UDF and LDF there is very little space for a third force, even if you do your best. In Uttar Pradesh, Congress was not there on the ground.
But occasionally I saw Congress workers who were fresh. Earlier Congress workers used to be tired, but this time some of them were very enthusiastic. So Priyanka may have helped to add to their enthusiasm. The idea of supporting more women candidates was also a smart one. She knew they were not going to win. It was not their election. There was nothing like Priyanka magic. It is not a verdict on Priyanka at all.
What were the possibilities for a Grand Alliance?
Even if the Congress and the Samajwadi Party (SP) had come together that would not have changed the results. SP made the most critical alliance with the RLD. We should not assume the SP did everything wrong. They did some smart things. Their campaigning was good, candidate selection was not bad and alliance building was sensible.
How did the Aam Admi Party get the mandate in Punjab?
In the last five years, the Aam Aadmi Party did nothing in Punjab. There was infighting, their own MLAs left them and they did not participate in any big agitation in Punjab. Yet they won the election. It would be silly to think that they won because of their political work. I am not entirely sure if it is a victory of Delhi model. So the issue which really worked in Punjab was the people were disgusted with the major political parties and they sought for something different. The Amarinder government was a failure. Channi could not have done any magic in hundred days. The Congress did the right thing by removing Amarinder, but it was late. The AAP looked different. Some of their candidates were ordinary people and they did not seem linked to any political establishment. This really worked.
What are the possibilities for a national alternative to the BJP?
I do think the opposition has a significant opportunity still left for 2024 and the Congress has a role to play. They may have a government in only two States, but they have a stake in so many states where the Congress is the principal opposition force.
If it begins to act like a party and not a boss, the Congress still has a historical role to play. There is a difference between the Congress party and Congress space. The Congress party is shrinking but the Congress space is still vast in the country. This is the space for building an India which respects our diversity and is oriented towards our constitutional values. After all, the Congress was the party of our freedom struggle. but it has the burden and responsibility to carry the values of our freedom struggle. So the Congress should become the true inheritor of the Congress space. If it reacts in a constructive, sensible way then there is still two years to go.
Where did our secular slogans fail?
Our secular liberals have neglected three things. We should be able to embrace nationalism confidently. Our inability on this count left the space for the BJP and they captured it. The progressive, radical left distanced themselves from our cultural traditions and the BJP captured it. And then our progressives criticised Hinduism more than any other religion. Some how our Left liberals focussed their criticism on Hinduism. So we had a low sighted engagement with the Hindus and the BJP captured it.
So it is because of our mistakes and failures that the BJP had a walkover. This is not a loss for the SP or the Congress.. All of us who believe in the constitution of India lost.
This is not an electoral defeat. It is an ideological cultural defeat. The Congress in its present form is not an alternative. AAP is the opposite of the alternative because it only replicates the BJP.
Lessons to be learned from the RSS?
The 50 years of its existence which focussed on communication with people. They focussed on convincing people even when they were a hopeless minority,they continued to work on their idea. The RSS worked for 90 years before Modi captured power. I think the secular people of this country must atleast work for 90 months before hoping to counter the RSS.
Did the farmers' agitation work?
The farmers' agitation did create a ground. If not for it there would not have been any serious contest in UP. So it produced a context, but the movement itself cannot change the political outcome. The political work has to be done by political parties.