Lucknow: Most exit poll predictions have indicated a dip in the number of seats for the BJP and its allies in Uttar Pradesh as compared to the 2014 figure. The BJP and allies had won 73 out of UP's 80 seats in 2014, while the Samajwadi Party was restricted to 5, followed by 2 for the Congress and none for the Bahujan Samaj Party.
However, most exit poll reports suggest that the SP-BSP alliance in UP may gain substantially over the existing figure this time around. The results of exit polls were announced immediately after voting ended for the seventh and final round of polling on Sunday.
The News24-Today's Chanakya has suggested 65 seats for NDA and 13 for SP-BSP.
The results indicate that BJP may have fallen out of favour in UP in as many as 50 seats or as little as 8 seats, depending on the agency that conducted the exit poll. The maximum loss for the BJP and allies has been indicated by the ABP-AC Nielsen exit poll, which has predicted 45 seats for the SP-BSP alliance, and a mere 33 for the BJP and allies.
However, Republic C-Voter exit poll says the NDA will win a total of 38 seats in UP, while the SP-BSP alliance may win 40 seats, while its prediction reduces the Congress’s UPA alliance to only 2 seats.
Times Now-VMR has given 58 seats to BJP and allies, followed by 20 to the SP-BSP combine.
Emergence of SP-BSP alliance
The election in UP was especially marked by the coming together of two bitter rivals Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party after more than two decades of antagonism. These two parties had entered into an alliance to take on the BJP. They formed a coalition government in the state after the 1993 Assembly elections, held in the aftermath of the mosque demolition in Ayodhya in December 1992 and subsequent dismissal of Kalyan Singh government. The two parties had agreed on sharing the five-year term equally, but in June 1995, elements in the SP decided to take the matter into their own hands, leading to the confinement and attack on Mayawati and BSP legislators in Lucknow’s State Guest House.
After a prolonged fracas, Mulayam Singh Yadav was dismissed and Mayawati was sworn in as chief minister on June 3, 1995, with BJP support. The acrimony between SP and BSP remained bitter with Mulayam and Mayawati using unpleasant language for each other for years. It was only in 2019 that Mulayam's son Akhilesh Yadav took the initiative to extend an
olive branch to Mayawati – again to unitedly fight the BJP – and the SP-BSP alliance took shape. This phenomenon marked a paradigm shift in UP politics since so far, the two parties did not appear on the same page or same platform on any occasion.
The two parties put up candidates keeping in mind the caste and community factors in all places but could not come up with any strong candidate in either Varanasi, Gorakhpur or Lucknow.
Congress manoeuvres
The alliance did pose a tough challenge to the BJP which seemed to ride on a strong wave of Modi’s popularity. The two parties had agreed on a 37-38-3-2 formula (seats for SP, BSP, Rashtriya Lok Dal and Congress). There was considerable confusion over whether the Congress was part of this alliance was in the contest only for a friendly bout, or for damaging BJP’s prospects. However, in many places it appeared to harm the alliance prospects, to the advantage of the BJP. The Congress campaign, bolstered by the appointment of Priyanka Gandhi as general secretary in-charge for east UP, floundered on several occasions when Priyanka asked her party workers to be ready for the big battle in 2022 Assembly election, or said her party was in the fray to “cut votes”, or indicated that she might contest from Varanasi. But the party did manage to leave an impression that it was in a revival mode.
However, the party faced uneasy moments in Rae Bareli and Amethi, from where Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, respectively, are contesting. While Sonia is challenged by a former confidante and MLC Dinesh Pratap Singh who joined BJP a little before the election, in Amethi BJP candidate Union minister Smriti Irani has been relentlessly pursuing the agenda of cornering Rahul with frequent visits, launching schemes and highlighting the plight of this so-called ‘VIP’ constituency represented by Rahul since 2004.
Triangular contests
The failure of Congress and SP-BSP to arrive at some understanding saw triangular contests across UP except in Rae Bareli and Amethi. There were unconfirmed reports that the possibility of having joint candidates in important seats like Varanasi, Gorakhpur and Lucknow was explored but that did not happen, making the BJP face a fragmented opposition.
The SP and the BSP have grown strong roots across the state and have been in power alternately since 2003. They have dominated the state and their workers and supporters too have become bolder and more aggressive over the years. They were naturally inclined to attack and dominate the bigger opposition – be it or BSP or SP – rather than the Congress and the BJP. Thus for them it has not been easy to reconcile with having their recent political enemies as friends. Both SP and BSP have derived their strength from the association of caste groups at the core – the Yadavs, some other OBCs and Muslims for the SP, while the BSP flourished on the support of Dalits and some Muslims. The support of upper castes and other intermediate groups kept transferring between BJP and these two parties, with the Congress having left with no assured support from any group.
This caste algorithm was checkmated by the BJP in 2014 with Modi emerging as a favourite across all barriers. But by the end of five years, the caste preferences came to the fore again even though Modi retained his popularity across many sections. This erosion in Modi’s support base is what the SP-BSP combine and the Congress tried to exploit in their favour, but with varying degrees of success, as the exit poll results suggest.