Will Raj Thackeray-factor dent the prospects of BJP in Maharashtra?

On April 24, while addressing a public rally at Bhandup in suburban Mumbai, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray introduced a family to the audience. Even as the family, comprising Yogesh Chile, his parents and sister, stood on the stage, Raj said this was among the poorest families of India and had been pulled out of poverty by the policies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“Now let me tell you what the poorest family does to earn its livelihood. Yogesh Chile is an artist and sculptor who makes statues. His father is a retired employee of BEST and his mother has retired from BMC. Yogesh is an office bearer of MNS, and he and his family became the face of BJP’s propaganda because they happened to post a family picture on Facebook. The BJP machinery lifted it from his FB page and pasted it on a BJP propaganda page with a headline ‘Modi hai to mumkin hai’ (When there is Modi, it is possible). I think the entire BJP has been gripped by a disease of lying... from the top to bottom everyone in the BJP is lying,” said Thackeray exposing BJP’s propaganda gimmick.

This wasn’t the first time that Raj had exposed the BJP propaganda in his rallies. He has done it in each and every rally that he has addressed so far in Maharashtra. His speeches are a clever mix of Raj’s oratorial skills coupled with video presentation to expose the BJP. It has become so popular that his statement "lav re to video" (play that video clip), during his speeches has become one of the most popular anti-BJP slogan this election season, thus making Raj Thackeray the second-most important star campaigner for Congress-NCP after Sharad Pawar.

Technically, Raj is not contesting the Lok Sabha elections this time, neither has he entered into an alliance with Congress-NCP. He is campaigning with the sole purpose of defeating Modi-Shah combine in Maharashtra. He is not even targeting Shiv Sena, his traditional rival, this time. His entire attack is focused on promises made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and how they have not been fulfilled. So popular are his rallies that he was invited to address them in Nanded (Ashok Chavan’s constituency) and Solapur (Sushilkumar Shinde’s constituency).

This is the same Raj Thackeray who had showered praises on Narendra Modi ahead of the elections in 2014 as he was hugely impressed by the Gujarat model of development. He was one of the VIP guests at the swearing-in ceremony of Modi after the latter had won the Gujarat assembly elections in 2012. So what happened in the last four years that Raj Thackeray made a complete U-turn and became one of the most vocal critics of the prime minister?

Raj Thackeray is said to be totally disillusioned with the BJP and the prime minister. Decisions like demonetisation, introduction of the GST coupled with continuing farmers’ suicides and agrarian crisis convinced Raj that Modi government was no good. That is why he decided to expose claims made by them in their campaigns and advertisements.

“Raj Thackeray had travelled to Gujarat following a suggestion from Ratan Tata of Tata group. Gujarat IAS officers were providing him with the information on development and growth of Gujarat under Modi. Raj has mentioned this several times in his speeches that Modi always showed a glossy picture of his state. Raj himself has admitted that he got carried away by the Modi wave and the false promises made by him to people of India. Raj had believed that if Modi could develop his home state, then he could also strive for the development of the nation. Based on this belief, Raj announced open support to Modi ahead of the 2014 elections,” said Kirtikumar Shinde, an associate of Raj Thackeray.

“The disastrous decisions like demonetisation and GST resulted in downfall of the country's economy. Modi-Shah duo has been making several false promises, spreading violence in the name of 'gau raksha', Modi government is providing fake data related to the country's development, opposition has been facing intense trolling on social media and Hindutva card is being played to divide people. This disappointed Raj Thackeray and he began sketching political cartoons as a weapon to counter Modi-Shah duo's propoganda. Now, during his election speeches, Raj Thackeray is making effective presentations and is demolishing false development claims of Modi government,” Shinde pointed out.

A source in the BJP claimed that Raj's party was hit badly by demonetisation and that is the reason why he is so vehemently critical of Modi and Shah and the BJP governments at the Centre and in Maharashtra.

Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis told THE WEEK that Raj realised that he could not join hands with the BJP as the party was firmly in alliance with the Shiv Sena. “The Modi wave of 2014 ended his politics. He got only one MLA elected, lost in all municipal corporation elections. He realised that he cannot join us as we are with Sena. So he went to the other side. I am very sure that he would join Congress-NCP alliance ahead of the assembly elections,” said Fadnavis.

There is an element of truth in what Fadnavis said. It was during last year that he began to move closer to Congress-NCP, especially the NCP and its chief Pawar. At a non-political public function, Raj had interviewed Pawar in Pune. A couple of months later, the two travelled together on the same flight from Aurangabad to Mumbai. At the beginning of this year, the NCP leaders began making statements that it would be useful to have Raj and his MNS in the unity of opposition parties against the BJP-Sena combine. However, it was the Congress which stonewalled the efforts to have an alliance with the MNS. The Congress was worried that the entry of Raj Thackeray into opposition alliance would hurt north Indians against whom the MNS had launched violent attacks in the past.

The BJP has criticised Raj Thackeray calling him a parrot who recites the script dictated by baramati (Sharad Pawar). Union minister Prakash Javdekar described him as a supari speaker (contract speaker). BJP’s criticism of Raj only highlights that the party is rattled by aggressive campaign launched by MNS chief and is on the defensive. All the rallies of Raj Thackeray have seen a huge response. What remains to be seen is whether this response translates into votes in favour of the Congress and NCP. If that happens Raj Thackeray will have won his first round in his latest battle with the BJP.

(This story was first published in The Week)