What's behind unlikely Sharad Pawar-Raj Thackeray partnership?

‘The Fox And The Hound’ is said to be the most tragic Disney film ever made. Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray should know - an accomplished cartoonist and self-confessed fan of Disney, it could be presumed he’s drawn lessons from the pioneer of animation industry.

The 1981 American animated feature is about a red fox who forms an unlikely friendship with a hunting dog. The duo struggle to preserve their mutual bond, knowing well that the fox would one day be the hunting dog’s prey. Their natural instincts and societal pressures finally turn the friends into adversaries. The hunter threatens the prey, who ends up in the middle of nowhere bringing about the saddest ending in cinema history.

Cut to the electoral jungle or zoo of Maharashtra, where an unlikely friendship was forged on a breezy February evening last year on the jam-packed grounds of Sharad Pawar’s alma mater Brihan Maharashtra College of Commerce in Pune, where an ‘apolitical’ event was held to mark his five decades in electoral politics. The surprise element was Raj Thackeray, who had donned the role of an interviewer nudging the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) honcho to open all his cards.

The ever-cautious Pawar, known variously as the Maratha Machiavelli and the crafty old fox of Indian politics, revealed little during the interview but the bonhomie between him and the estranged Thackeray nephew wasn’t lost on the audience or their political rivals.

The duo set tongues wagging again in October that year when they travelled together on a flight from Aurangabad to Mumbai. Their followers maintained it was a ‘mere coincidence', but when the not-so-clandestine meetings became more frequent ahead of this year’s Lok Sabha polls, followed by Raj’s sharp barbs at the BJP dispensation, both at the Centre and in the state, talks of a new political equation – an odd but solid Mahagathbandhan – began to gain traction.

Last month, Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis threw a virtual sneezing fit, insinuating that Raj was parroting a script from Baramati, referring to Pawar’s home town. “Baramati is always in search of a new parrot. There are certain things they cannot say openly, so they are making this parrot speak against the BJP,” the CM said in Mumbai, adding that the artist (Raj studied at the JJ School of Art) was indeed good at reciting from ready-made scripts.

The coming together of Pawar senior and Thackeray junior surprised many in Maharashtra. In fact, some political pundits couldn’t resist comparing them with the adversarial Tom and Jerry, recalling how Pawar was the first to take a jibe at Raj after the launch of his MNS in 2006, saying: “A person who wakes up at mid-day cannot run a successful party.” Raj responded in typical ‘Thackri style,’ his verbal punches packed with some unparliamentary words.

By 2013, the on-going war of words had turned ugly and spilled on to the streets with NCP workers attacking Raj Thackeray’s convoy in Ahmednagar district. The incident was followed by heavy stone pelting between the rival party workers that left five injured.

Pawar’s words had come true by now, as the MNS, after making initial electoral gains, was seen floundering ahead of the 2014 parliamentary polls. It was reduced to a one-MLA party (from 13 MLAs in 2009) at the assembly elections held later that year. The successful candidate, an import from the parent Shiv Sena, resigned in 2018 and returned to its folds recently.

So what is Raj Thackeray up to now? After the talks of a tie-up with Congress-NCP fizzled out, the MNS is not even contesting the Lok Sabha polls. And yet, he’s out there on the party podium attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi like nobody else does.

“Go to the Google site and type ‘feku’ and you will find Narendra Modi’s name right at the top of the search list. The world sees our prime minister as a ‘feku,’ a liar! How does it feel,” he asked the crowds on the day of Gudhi Padwa, the Maharashtrian new year. He didn’t stop at that and went on to list out the similarities between Modi and Hitler, declaring that he isn’t adverse to having Rahul Gandhi as the next prime minister.

The Marathi crowds at Shivaji Park were visibly astounded and fell quiet as the leader’s speech wasn’t the familiar mix of fire and brimstone, interlaced with mimicry and mockery, targeting migrants. Instead, he was often breaking the flow of speech to draw their attention to the giant-sized video screens, displaying evidence of Modi’s 2014 promises and failures in the past five years.

Some eight years ago this would have been unthinkable. Raj was a special guest at Modi’s swearing in as the CM in 2012 after having visited Gujarat and commended the state’s development. In 2014, he had whole-heartedly endorsed Modi for prime ministership.

In a way, Raj Thackeray has shown his politics can be both consistent and inconsistent, all at the same time. He’s still backing a candidate from another party for the PM’s post, but has taken a 180 degree turn from the BJP to the Congress, from Modi to Rahul.

Political observers see this shift as a necessity or compulsion arising out of the harsh reality concerning the leader’s own and his party’s dipping political fortunes. Both need a drastic push to remain relevant in Maharashtra’s politics, which is currently centred around the BJP-Sena and Cong-NCP alliances.

With the entry of a third front, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi of Prakash Ambedkar and Asaduddin Owaisi, the MNS suddenly finds itself on a sticky wicket, struggling to maintain the third position.

Pawar’s NCP was keen on an alliance with Raj but the Congress state chief Ashok Chavan and former chief minister Prithviraj Chavan, not wanting to lose the non-Maharashtrian vote and to avoid conceding the upper hand to a wily partner, put a break on the move.

Still, Raj remains in high demand, both from the NCP, Congress and their alliance candidates, to counter the combined might of the BJP’s star campaigners led by the Modi-Amit Shah-Fadnavis trio, and his own cousin-nephew, Uddhav and Aditya.

Raj appears peeved by what he calls “unsubstantiated” news stories about his aborted talks with the Congress-NCP. “Mala Kahi Doka Nahi?” (I don’t have brains?), he asked the media at the Gudhi Padwa rally. If that’s true, then his agreeing to campaign for the same parties in a few select constituencies against the ruling alliance, defies political logic.

With Uddhav Thackeray positioning himself well for the time being, both within the party and the alliance with BJP, Raj and his party seem to have little choice left. The rather thin perch offered by the Congress-NCP could ensure he stays in the game rather than languish on the sidelines.

Or is it a clever compromise between Pawar and Raj with an eye on the Assembly elections scheduled later this year. Perhaps, they have a different political plan – remember Pawar’s NCP had broken away from the Congress ahead of the 2014 state polls.

At the moment, nobody within the NCP or MNS are ready to indulge the media on their future manoeuvres. But there’s a possibility of the NCP, if not the Congress, helping MNS by agreeing to share seats during the Assembly polls, in return for its support during the crucial civic elections in Mumbai and Nashik in 2022.

Raj though made it known to his party cadres at Shivaji Park that the present arrangement was a temporary one, urging them to work for the Congress-NCP alliance candidates during the Lok Sabha campaign “because it was important to defeat the Modi-Shah duo.”

Raj’s modelled himself on uncle Bal Thackeray’s public persona and continues to enjoy good support among young Maharashtrians owing to his superior public speaking skills, charisma and aggression than his cousin Uddhav.

The natives, especially in urban pockets, may continue to back him hoping he would fight for the Marathi cause. This despite the somersaults, from warming up to Modi in 2014 to throwing himself into the arms of Pawar in 2019 to backing Rahul for the country’s top job.

However, for Raj Thackeray to get his act together is proving a long wait for Maharashtrians dejected and disgruntled with the misrule and infighting of the current alliances. For Raj to be taken seriously, he has to first prove his ability to lead his own party to victory, even if it is in those Mumbai areas where Marathi speakers dominate. He could then build from there, with the backing of friendly parties. The alternative could be political oblivion.

In any case, it will be interesting to watch the Pawar-Raj duo play their own games during the on-going Lok Sabha campaign and the coming Assembly polls. And as they fight their common foes, sending them scrambling to safeguard their turfs, hopefully this unlikely partnership -- unlike in the Disney movie – doesn’t get blown up by natural instincts or political pressures.