Lucknow: With major political parties declaring their candidates for all phases of polling in Uttar Pradesh, the picture is becoming clear in most constituencies, indicating a multi-cornered fight despite the coming together of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party.
The two parties had first experimented with putting up a joint candidate against the BJP in the by-elections for Gorakhpur, Phulpur and later in Kairana, and had won all three, dealing a stunning blow to the BJP. It was considered a major step towards consolidation of anti-BJP forces in UP, since the two parties have been political foes since 1995 in the aftermath of a bitter break-up of their coalition government. In fact, BSP leader Mayawati had nursed the grievance of being attacked by SP supporters in June 1995 in what is known as the State Guest House incident for more than two decades. It was with the advent of Akhilesh Yadav at the helm of affairs in the SP that he started an outreach with first the Congress, and then with the BSP. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had been reduced to two seats, down from 21 in 2009. It opted for an electoral alliance with the SP just before the 2017 UP Assembly elections, with both Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav being upbeat about their prospects. However, their efforts ended in disaster, further weakening the Congress.
After the SP-BSP coalition worked wonders in the state by-elections, the two parties would have preferred the Congress too to become a part of the anti-BJP alliance or a Mahagatbandhan. But this was not to be. The Congress, under Rahul Gandhi's leadership, has been trying hard to make a comeback in UP politics. The Congress victory in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh bolstered these efforts and now, the appointment of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is a clear indication that the Congress would rather carve out a place for itself than go as a junior partner of the SP-BSP alliance. Both SP and BSP claim that the Congress never responded to their efforts to form a grand alliance.
With the presence of Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the coalition is now emerging as a formidable political challenge to the BJP, and if only the SP and BSP had been in the fray in the state, the BJP could have faced a serious drubbing. But the presence of a rejuvenated Congress, with Priyanka taking a highly-publicised boat ride in the Ganga, visiting Varanasi, Prayagraj and Mirzapur, has emerged as a strong third angle in most electoral contests in the state.
The SP and BSP have taken care to accommodate their respective vote base in choosing their candidates, and have even reached out to some smaller parties to broadbase their appeal. The two parties enjoy considerable support among the Muslims, OBCs and Dalits, and some other castes also look at this alliance as a viable alternative to the BJP. The Congress on the other hand, has traditionally enjoyed the support of these very groups, and the SP and BSP are wary of the growing appeal of the Congress.
The Congress has also tied with some small regional parties in UP, making its intentions clear, but it has annoyed the SP-BSP further. There has been a sharp exchange of statements too between the Congress and the SP-BSP over this, but the Congress continues to pursue its campaign. It now appears that the Congress may emerge as a serious player in many constituencies in UP, where otherwise the BJP and SP-BSP would have been locked in a direct contest. Some Congress candidates and their constituencies where the party is gearing up for a tough fight, leading to a three-cornered contest include Kushinagar (RPN Singh), Saharanpur (Imran Masood), Farrukhabad (Salman Khurshid), Fatehpur Sikri (Raj Babbar), Barabanki (Tanuj Punia) and Ghaziabad (Dolly Sharma). In all probability, the anti-BJP votes in these places could be split between the Congress and the SP-BSP candidate.
Adding another angle to the three-cornered equation is the steady progress of Shivpal Yadav, the SP rebel who after forming his own party Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia) or PSPL, has tied up with smaller parties such as Peace Party and Apna Dal (Krishna Patel). Although he too claims to be working against the BJP, his primary target is to create huge discomfiture for the SP-BSP alliance in many constituencies. In such areas the contest could well turn out to be four-cornered.
It will be interesting to watch the scenario in high-profile constituencies like Lucknow, Varanasi, Kanpur, Prayagraj, Agra, Ayodhya and some other places, where names of candidates of all parties are yet to be announced. As part of their commitment to honour the top leadership of the Congress, the SP-BSP alliance has already announced that it would not put up candidates in Rae Bareli and Amethi, from where Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, respectively, are going to contest. To this announcement, the Congress had responded by saying that it, too, will not put up candidates in seven places from where members of the Mulayam Singh Yadav family and top BSP leaders would contest. This had led to a quick and sharp retort from the BSP which trashed this claim, saying that the Congress was wrongly trying to portray that it was part of the SP-BSP alliance. It also cautioned its workers not to be misled by the Congress.
The first phase of polling on April 11 is just two weeks away and all parties are now engaged in serious campaigning. It would seem that factors of caste, personal ego and regional influence have once again triumphed over electoral wisdom, mixing the chances of joint opposition fight against the BJP despite the simple arithmetic appearing to be in SP-BSP's favour.