Seven days to Donald Trump 2.0

The world has been divided into two since the election results brought Donald Trump back to the centre stage as the next US President. One group of nations is waiting breathlessly to see the rabbits that come out of his hat after January 20, 2025, while the other group is rushing to do what it can before he takes over.

India is in neither group as it believes that Trump-Modi duo will tango together within the framework they established during the US leader's first term. Tremors and turbulence may occur, but a certain affinity exists on account of democracy, even though the Democratic Party had undermined Indian democracy by accusing it of suspected fascist inclinations. In fact, India seems to be among the very few countries that are optimistic about the advent of Donald Trump 2.0

The strongest bond between India and the US will be based on the common threat they perceive in China. The Republicans have a sense of guilt that they helped China grow out of proportion to challenge the Soviet Union and ended up as a challenge to itself as a rival for the top spot economically and politically. As a result, the US has built strong partnerships like the Quad, which is yet to become a full-fledged military alliance, mainly because of India’s reluctance to provoke a giant neighbour with a common border. 

In 2020, we saw Trump giving us not only moral support, but also non-lethal equipment for high altitudes. He left China in no doubt that the US would support India in the event of a conflict. Even Biden did what he could to strengthen Quad till the end of his tenure. 

If China is a possible glue that sticks India and the US together, trade and tariffs will be a sore point between America and China. Even during Trump’s first tenure, he called India a “king of tariffs” as against China the “emperor of tariffs” deserving a trade war. This time, Trump intends to use tariff as a weapon of mass destruction with its negative impact on India. India is still not a member of APEC, which may have provided some relief.

Another area of tension between us would be the sanctions against Russia and Iran. If Trump stops all wars as he has promised to do, the global situation will be less lethal. If the situation in West Asia deteriorates, Trump may expect us to be more helpful in that region. The presence of the Indian community in West Asia may be seen as an asset influencing public opinion in these countries. The improvement in relations with Israel may be another factor in the growth of India US relations.   

In trade, Trump had removed GSP for India and Biden has not restored it. Trump is not likely to restore it as he is averse to preferential treatment in trade for any country. 

It is expected that Trump will avoid the mistakes he made in the previous term by presenting a clearly defined agenda for the first 90 days of his administration. Trump wants to create jobs at home by reducing imports and starting manufacturing. He might put a lot of pressure on US Companies to increase exports. 

If the wars end in Ukraine and Gaza, the complaints about Indian neutrality in these situations will disappear. But Trump will expect India to reduce its dependence on Russia in defence, energy etc.

Defence cooperation between India and the US will prosper, and arms transfers will be the key to his approach to different nations. With the weakening of the Russian arms industry and decreasing supplies from Israel, US arms trade is likely to increase.

Immigration is the first priority for Trump. He speaks of mass deportation of illegal immigrants even when he welcomes skilled workers from abroad. Though Indian immigrants are largely legal, there may be a number of illegal immigrants who will be affected. Trump and Elon Musk have been champions of the H1B visas, specifically those meant to fast-track immigration for highly qualified foreigners.

Another programme that permits students to continue in the US for more time to sharpen their skills after completion of education in the United States has become a matter of contention among the Republicans. It remains to be seen how these differences will be resolved so that they do not affect the migration of skilled Indians.

As a businessman who will be inclined to favour business with India, particularly since the Chinese economy is on a downward spiral, it may be positive. But his unpredictability is a concern for all. His claims on Greenland, Panama Canal and Canada have bewildered everyone. These could well be diversionary tactics to hide more fundamental ideas that may be under consideration. 

The invitations Trump has extended to his inauguration have caused considerable speculation. Invitation to the Chinese President and not to the Indian Prime Minister is enigmatic, to say the least. Keeping the world guessing about American intentions may not be conducive to peace and stability in the world, but that may well be the hallmark of Trump 2.0