Column | Hopes and fears about second Trump presidency

The unexpected decisive victory of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States was nothing short of a miracle. His history as President in his first term and his behaviour after his defeat, which resulted in a call for an insurrection by a President, would have disqualified him as a candidate in any other country. He is a convicted felon who would not have come anywhere near victory in the circumstances.

However, in actual fact, Trump put on the mantle of a saviour of his country and carried the day because his rival promised nothing but more of the Biden legacy. With all her charm, laughter and polished language, Kamala Harris had no alternate plan to offer on any of the burning issues of the nation.

Although statistics showed that the American economy was doing well, inflation and the resultant price rise was the biggest issue in the election and Harris did not even recognise it as a major concern to deal with. Harris also had nothing to offer on the question of illegal immigrants, whom Trump portrayed as having played havoc with the American social fabric by their criminal activities.

At the same time, Trump made it clear that he would not block the migration of professionals who will play a significant role in the field of technology. The American public is generally wary of migrants, but it favours selective migration of foreigners, who are indispensable for its own economic development.

On abortion, Trump took a flexible position, leaving it to the states to make appropriate legislation that suited them, while Harris was adamant that there should be no restrictions on the rights of women in matters of reproductive health. It was expected that Harris would get the support of women voters on this account, but, as it happened, most women did not support her on account of this issue.

The Biden administration’s failure to stop two major and several minor wars was seen as a disaster by many Americans and the world at large. It supported the NATO war against Russia in Ukraine with the supply of arms and financial assistance without any substantial benefit to the US.

As for the Israeli fight against Hamas, Biden could not restrain Netanyahu in his all-out war in Gaza and Lebanon. The proverbial ‘Israeli tail wagging the American dog’ is anathema to many Americans. It was felt that Trump, though a committed friend of Israel, would be firm in preventing genocide or excessive use of force.

The sense of helplessness the Americans felt in continuing the Biden legacy by Harris was the key that the surveys, the press and political analysts missed in predicting the results.

The voters knew that Trump’s record as President was not impeccable, but they decided to choose him to make America great again. There was no doubt that they felt that a change was necessary, but they had no alternative to Trump to rely on to bring about change.

The fact that Kamala Harris was a woman black candidate of Indian Origin was expected to be attractive to the voters, particularly to the blacks and Indians. But Harris went out of her way to assert her black identity, except for her describing herself as a black politician of Indian origin on the last Saturday before the election in a popular television show.

She was consistently critical of human rights and press freedom in India and urged a change of policy on Jammu & Kashmir. She also did not care to visit India during her four years as Vice-President, even though the Prime Minister warmly invited her and the welcome awaited her.

As for India, it is believed that every President will nurture India-US relations regardless of political affiliations. However, Trump was more favourable to India than Biden in terms of the important issues of China and Pakistan. At the time of the Chinese intrusions in Ladakh in 2020, he not only provided political support but also supplied vital non-lethal equipment to the Indian Army.

He had even agreed to provide armed drones to India, if necessary. Trump will likely continue this policy in the future because India is vital in containing China in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific. There were difficulties on trade particularly when he withdrew India’s General System of Preferences status. On Russia-Ukraine war, the differences in perceptions between the two countries may continue, but if the war ends, the sharpness of these differences may fade away.

Trump was the first US President to accuse Pakistan of misusing funds provided for anti-terrorist activities and stop such funding altogether. Trump is likely to continue to be friendly towards India in our neighborhood. His recent support for Hindu religious freedom in Bangladesh, though expressed as part of his election campaign, has distanced the US from its support for Mohammed Yunus's interim government.

President Trump will certainly bring about dramatic changes in the US and the world, but there is no guarantee that he will be coherent and consistent in every issue. His style of functioning through daily morning tweets and lack of consistency will likely lead to aberrations in decision-making in domestic and foreign policies. But much will depend on his Cabinet and other advisors, including the Senators and members of the House of Representatives, who are likely to be led by members of his own party.

The world is on the cusp of a new world order, and Trump may well be a messiah of a new beginning. But concerns remain about his ultra-nationalism and impulsive decision-making.