Can new PM Wickremesinghe save Sri Lanka from economic ruin?

Ranil Wickremesinghe looks like an ideal choice for dealing with the Sri Lankan crisis at this critical time. He has been Prime Minister five times before, he has a pleasant personality, he is friendly to the west and to the Bretton Woods Institutions, cordial to India and acceptable to China and he is courageous enough to rise to the challenge offered to him. He is self-confident enough to compare himself with Winston Churchill, who had become Britain's Prime Minister with very little popular support.

But it is evident that he has been brought in to resolve the unprecedented economic crisis, while protecting the Presidency of Gotabaya Rajapaksa whose return to his village is the demand of the public demonstrators. The removal of the President and the abolition of the Executive Presidency have assumed greater urgency after Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned, following the revelation that Rajapaksa’s men were behind the violence that erupted among the protesters a few days ago. Wickremesinghe has a record of defending and protecting the Rajapaksas even before. People believe that the removal of the President is necessary to bring about structural reforms necessary for saving the country from economic ruin.

PM doesn't inspire confidence

Wickremesinghe also lacks popular support and his United National Party has only won one seat in the parliament during the last elections and that too by the rule of proportional representation. The people believe that a Prime Minister who has to depend on the President’s political party for survival cannot reverse the economic and political crisis in the country. Moreover, the new PM was not known for his economic prowess, though he had dabbled in economic reforms with the support of some experts when he was PM. He had not completed any of the five terms that he had held. He was known more as a deal-maker rather than as a trusted leader.

The battalions of misfortune the country faced in recent times like the COVID-19, the terrorist attacks, the Chinese debt trap and the global consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war were beyond the control of President Gotabaya, but the populist reduction of taxes, banning the import of fertilizers, the Rajapaksas holding 72 per cent of all the portfolios in the Government and rampant corruption were even more responsible for the country teetering over the brink of disaster. That is why even after the swearing in of the new Prime Minister, the people are shouting the slogan, “Go Gota Go” on the streets of Colombo.

Other pressing issues 

In other words, Wickremesinghe cannot deliver on the promise he has made of pulling the country out of chaos as long as the President remains in power. Beyond the call for economic recovery, there is a persistent demand for freedom from the dynasty. The ethnic issues had been accentuated by Gotabaya’s attachment to a Sinhala nation, but even the minorities seem united against him.

Another concern that the people have is the growing power of the Sri Lankan army in governance under the Rajapaksas. There is the danger of a Pakistan or Myanmar model army emerging in Sri Lanka. Wickremesinghe will find it hard to dislodge the army as long as its patron remains in power and he himself is beholden to the President.

Near-term prospects

If Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigns and the Parliament elects a new President from among its members to fill the remaining term of the President, Wickremesinghe could lead a Government of opposition leaders, including Sajith Premadasa and begin to deal with the enormous economic entanglement the country is in. The economic experts, who are groping for a way ahead, will then gain greater authority and popular support.

At best, Ranil Wickremesinghe can only hold the fort and put together an economic package for the World Bank and the IMF and give some confidence to the people that there is light at the end of the tunnel. A revolution which will bring in the younger generation to the fore alone can reinstate peace and progress in the country, which it had enjoyed in the earlier years when it was only second to Japan in the economic indices in the region.

Not too late to act

Wickremesinghe’s international profile is impressive, but the world is in no mood to give attention to Sri Lanka in the face of the cataclysmic events unleashed by the Ukraine war. China, the one country, which is responsible for Sri Lanka’s debt trap has so far not responded adequately to the needs of Sri Lanka. Even India, whose overall commitment to Sri Lanka in various ways amounts to 6 billion dollars, characterizes it as assistance to the people of Sri Lanka without mentioning the Gotabaya Government. India has stated that it supports democracy, stability and economic recovery.

The international community, particularly India, will be guided by the interests of the people expressed through a democratic process rather than through a Government appointed by the discredited incumbent President. But an encouraging feature is that the potential to find a solution still remains and even in the current situation, the country has not slipped into anarchy.