On January, 20, Donald John Trump, 70, will take over as President of United States of America.
Considering that the US president has powers to affect disastrously or benignly the life of human beings outside US, it would have been fair and logical if the rest of the world too had a say in selecting the president.
Disunited States of America
Trump is taking over as President of a disunited states of America. His rival Hillary Clinton got 2.8 million votes more, but the fact remains that he was duly elected by the Electoral College. The reports about email hacking of the Democratic Party’s Central Committee by Russia under Putin’s orders have cast a shadow of cloud over Trump’s election, but that cloud might dissipate soon.
Trump reminds the writer of Aldous Huxley’s famous book The Brave New World where he says, “What we love will ruin us.” The question that is haunting the world can be put in a nutshell: Will Trump prove to be the bull in the China shop that the world is?
Trump’s Cabinet
Niccolo Machiavelli, the famous Renaissance era political thinker of Florence, said that to know a ruler one should take a close look at the counselors he has chosen.
» Secretary of State, Rex W Tillerson, the current head of the oil giant Exxon Mobile, with a market value of $370 billion, operating in 50 countries. In 2012, Tillerson was honored by Putin with the decoration “Order of Friendship” for the huge oil deals Exxon Mobile has signed with Russia.
» Secretary of Defense is the retired Lt. General James N Mattis, once sidelined by Obama for asking inconvenient questions. What is intriguing about this appointment is that Trump himself is a supporter of torture whereas Mattis has publicly opposed it. Mattis is cocksure of the invincibility of the US military. He has boasted, “I don’t lose sleep overnight over the potential for failure. I can’t even spell the word.”
» Scott Pruitt, head the Environment Protection Agency, is a well-known climate- change denier.
» Robert E Lighthizer, Trade Representative, has advocated a trade war with China.
» Ambassador to Israel David Friedman has publicly supported Israel’s annexation of the West Bank, and plans under implementation for more Jewish settlements in the occupied territory belonging to the Palestinians, and the move to declare Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
A cabinet of the super-rich
What is notable about the Trump nominations is that 17 appointees have more wealth than 43 million least wealthy Americans. The four richest of the nominees have between them $998 million equal to 12,000 times the median net worth of households ($83,200). In short, Trump with a wealth of over $3.7 billion and a daily income of $ 1 million (2014) has a cabinet of the super-rich.
Trump’s philosophy
In his book adroitly titled 'Crippled America: How to make America great Again', published in 2015, Trump has explained his ‘transactional’ approach to foreign policy.
Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea and others who are getting military protection from US should pay for it. International treaties US has entered do not necessarily bind Trump.
He is prepared to re-negotiate them and in any case his compliance cannot be taken for granted.
US has no obligation to spend treasure and blood to set right problems in different parts of the world unless US interests are directly threatened.
US leadership of the world
Ever since 1945, US has led the world. Even during the Cold War that lasted till 1985, US was the dominant power and USSR equaled it only in the possession of strategic nuclear weapons. Since the end of the Cold War there was a unipolar phase that President George Bush ended with his disastrous invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the occupation that followed. Even under Obama, who wanted to limit military engagement abroad, US has remained the leading power engaged in solving problems, with exceptions such as Syria.
Under Trump with his ‘transactional’ approach all this could change.
For example, the 2015 Paris Accord on Climate Change would not have been finalized but for Obama’s leadership. Trump would have taken the lead to prevent agreement as he does not believe that climate change threat is real.
Relations with Russia
It is obvious that Obama has mishandled relations with Russia by demonizing Putin who has outwitted him in Syria and even in Ukraine.
Therefore, Trump’s plans to improve relations with Putin make sense. That Trump will not be deterred by the reported email hacking by Russia indirectly helping his election is clear.
However, Trump might have to deal with some resistance from the Congress.
Europe and NATO
The ‘transactional’ approach will make things difficult for European members of NATO. Most probably, they will be forced to spend more on defense. There is no question of US withdrawing from NATO.
We also have to note that Trump prides himself as a superb deal maker and honestly believes that it is good to start with an extreme position as an opening gambit.
Such a bargaining style makes more sense in business than in diplomacy as Trump will find out soon.
Trump’s victory has already begotten a strong far right wave in Western Europe and the European Union might get weaker as elections take place in the Netherlands, France, Germany, and possibly, in Italy too during 2017.
China
Trump has already caused jitters in Beijing by his public questioning of the 'One China' policy. His phone conversation with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen angered China, which has threatened retaliation.
Will Trump impose duty on imports from China? Will there be a trade war? We do not know. All that we can say is that such a war will hurt both countries, and, perhaps, the world economy.
The Middle East
We should not be surprised if Trump and Putin make a deal on Syria and together try to annihilate the Islamic State. They might succeed in capturing territory, but the Islamic State is also a mindset and the probability of terrorist attacks in the West might increase.
Further, defeating the Islamic State can cause huge number of civilian casualties. The captured territory will be a study in wanton destruction.
Japan, South Korea, and North Korea
Candidate Trump had suggested that Japan and South Korea might consider making nuclear weapons for their defense instead of depending on US.
It is unlikely that President Trump will repeat that advice. Nevertheless, both Seoul and Tokyo are deeply worried. They may have to pay more for the US troops stationed.
North Korea has claimed that it is about to attain ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) capability.
Once it has ICBMs, North Korea can threaten US. Trump had said that he would negotiate with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. We should wait and see.
Pakistan
Since Trump believes that US does not necessarily have to get involved with all the trouble spots, Pakistan’s importance in US eyes might come down. He might take a tougher line on state-sponsored terrorism. But, the military-industrial complex, close to Trump, might try hard to retain Pakistan as a close non-NATO partner.
Impact on India
Trump and Modi might develop good personal chemistry between them. Each might see in the other a strong leader to be admired. Trump’s plans to improve relations with Russia are good for India.
Putin got closer to China mainly because Obama pushed him away and eventually Russia became a junior partner to China. If Trump and Putin succeed in their plans, Russia will have less unequal relations with China, a development India will welcome.
If US-China relations worsen, the impact on India might be good as China will be less haughty with India. Trump’s ideas about reducing HIB visas will hurt India. Exxon Mobile might invest more in India.
In conclusion, Trump’s corporate CEO style of decision making will clash with the Washington culture of checks and balances. Will Trump change or will he be a bull in a china shop? Nobody, not even Trump knows.
Appointing family members starting with son-in-law Kushner as senior adviser in the White House might boomerang. It is difficult for a 70-year-old man to learn new skills. But, then Trump has surprised the world more than once.
(The author is a former Indian diplomat.)