UNION BUDGET @2024

Transition from Goyal to Sitharaman? Comparison of 2 interim budgets, and India’s fate

Exactly five years ago on February 1, 2019, the then Union finance minister Piyush Goyal was not presumptuous enough to say that his government would return to deliver the full budget in July that year. The post-Ayodhya euphoria seems to have emboldened his successor Nirmala Sitharaman to say so. She has not even bothered to wait for the people to cast their votes.

She did not even consider using the humbler, appropriate, phrase "new government". "In the full budget in July, our Government will present a detailed roadmap for our pursuit of ‘Viksit Bharat’," Sitharaman said during her short interim budget speech which lasted just two minutes short of an hour.

The certainty of a 2024 win was so palpable that there was no effort to freshly pamper any major groups -- farmers or the salaried class or even women -- except to say that her government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has prepared the ground to make India a 'Viksit Bharat' by 2047.

'Lakhpati Didis', Atmanirbhar Oil Seeds Abhiyan, Aspirational District programme, PM Awas Yojana (rural housing) and even interest-free loans for states are existing schemes and projects.

And the only new grand promise, the installation of rooftop solar in one crore houses, was already announced by the Prime Minister on January 22, right after the consecration of Ram Lalla in the new Ayodhya temple.

Therefore, in essence, the finance minister was saying, 'here is what we have done and what we would continue to do'. But Sitharaman resolutely refrained from announcing any grand voter-influencing scheme or project, as expected in a pre-election budget. Her government’s record was the BJP manifesto.

If Sitharaman merely presented a progress card, her predecessor looked eager to impress and lure before the 2019 general elections. It was in the interim budget of 2019 that Goyal launched the 'Pradhan Mantri KIsan SAmman Nidhi (PM-KISAN)'. Under this, farmers with cultivable land up to 2 hectares are provided direct income support of Rs 6000 annually, which will be transferred directly to their bank accounts in three equal instalments of Rs 2,000 each.

This time there was an expectation that Sitharaman might increase the benefit, perhaps scale it up to Rs 8000. In keeping with the mood that her government has done enough to take it through the 2024 polls, she did not. She just said that the assistance is given to 11.8 crore farmers.

It was also in the 2019 interim budget that Goyal launched what he called the "mega pension yojana" christened 'Pradhan Mantri Shram-Yogi Maandhan' (PM-SYM) for the unorganised sector workers with monthly income up to Rs 15,000. It was said that this pension yojana would provide workers an assured monthly pension of Rs 3,000 from the age of 60 years on a monthly contribution of a small affordable amount during their working age.

Sitharaman did not make a mention of this yojana in her speech. Recently there were reports that questioned the viability of the scheme. It was said that 21% of PM-SYM subscribers withdrew within six months of its launch. It was said that the contribution was unaffordable for poor unorganised workers.

Sitharaman did not speak a word of defence either. In 2019, before the election, Goyal had two paragraphs reserved for defence and national security. "Our defence budget will be crossing Rs 3 lakh crore for the first time in 2019-20. For securing our borders and to maintain preparedness of the highest order, if necessary, additional funds would be provided," Goyal had said.

Towards the fag end of its second term, it looks like the Modi dispensation can do away with even such nationalistic chest-thumping. Curiously she used India and not Bharat whenever she referred to the country. She used the name 22 times. However, Goyal used India 73 times in a speech that was shorter than Sitharaman's.