Pacific Island leaders prepare to meet: Climate change, security take top billing

Climate change and security will dominate discussions at next week's meeting of Pacific Islands leaders in Tonga as China and the United States jostle for influence in the region. The chairman of the Pacific Islands Forum, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, told foreign ministers from the 18 member nations this month "regional solidarity amidst the ever-increasing geostrategic interest, navigating the ongoing climate crisis and managing emerging challenges" are top priorities.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres will also travel to Tonga, which has a population of 100,000 spread across 36 islands and is reliant on overseas aid, to highlight the need for greater climate change assistance.

Slow economic growth, rising costs for imported basic goods, and the severe impact of climate-induced disasters were raised by economic ministers in the lead-up to the meeting. The decline of international banking services across the region will also be discussed. Civil unrest between indigenous Kanaks and French loyalists in the French territory of New Caledonia, a forum member, is among several challenging security issues for leaders.

They will also consider a proposal to boost training of Pacific Islands police to enable forum members to assist each other with security in a crisis, reducing the need to turn to help from countries outside the region such as China. Australia, the largest member of the forum, has backed the proposal and will fund a regional police training centre in Papua New Guinea.

"It is politically sensitive because everyone is well aware of the strategic implications," said Mihai Sora, director of the Pacific Islands Program at the Lowy Institute think tank in Australia.

It will be important the policing programme is seen as responding to Pacific Islands priorities and not just cementing top aid donor Australia's role as the major security partner, he added. Until recently, China has been a major infrastructure lender in the region and is now seeking a greater role in the military, policing, digital connectivity and media.

Chinese police operate in Solomon Islands and Kiribati, and Beijing hosted visits by the leaders of Fiji, Vanuatu and Solomon Islands in the weeks before the forum meeting, highlighting its ability to provide development assistance, and its security goals. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell will travel to Tonga to meet with the forum leaders, the U.S. State Department said on Friday.

The U.S. is not a forum member, but leaders will decide on an application by the U.S. Pacific territories of Guam and American Samoa to join as associate members, without voting rights.

"These are American territories, so that will increase the U.S. access, and potentially its ability to influence or shape regional discussions," Sora said. Highlighting the challenges to adopting a unified approach, forum member Kiribati announced in a Facebook statement on Friday it was closing its door to foreign diplomatic visits until 2025.

The remote nation's pro-China president Taneti Maamau regained his parliament seat in a national election this month, but still faces a direct vote for president later in the year. Three forum members have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, which China views as its own territory, after Nauru switched its allegiance to Beijing this year.