CPM strongman P Jayarajan seemed a formidable candidate in Vadakara until Congress pitchforked K Muraleedharan MLA to the unpredictable Lok Sabha constituency.
Voters in Vadakara seldom pledge their political loyalty.
The constituency was synonymous with K P Unnikrishnan for a long time.
He won six times starting 1980 even as he switched from Congress to Congress (U) to Congress (S).
In 1996, CPM's O Bharathan trounced Unnikrishnan.
A K Premajam guarded the seat for the party in 1998 and 1999.
P Sathi Devi won the seat by a margin of 1.30 lakh votes in 2004.
Congress's comeback vehicle was local man Mullappally Ramachandran, who had lost to Unnikrishnan in 1980. He repeated the success in 2014 amid a volatile situation prevailing in the constituency due to the murder of estranged CPM leader T P Chandrasekharan.
When Mullappally returned to contest in 2009,the Congress wrested the seat by a margin of over 50,000 votes.
This time, the CPM's focus on Vadakara was evident when it deputed its Kannur district secretary as the candidate. Jayarajan relinquished his organisational duty and started his campaign in Vadakara as soon as the party announced his candidature.
The United Democratic Front, meanwhile, went on the back foot. Ramachandran, who had since moved on as the KPCC president, refused to contest this time citing organisational responsibilities as the president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC).
The Congress could not zero in on a suitable replacement even though the Revolutionary Marxist Party, founded by slain leader T P Chandrasekharan before his murder, threw its weight behind it. Muraleedharan saved the day for the Congress.
Jayarajan is facing his first election to the Lok Sabha. He had represented Koothuparamba three times in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
Jayarajan's life is a tale of resilience. He bounced bank to public life after a bid on his life in 1999. He led the party in Kannur district for eight years.
He has led the party's campaign in Vadakara several times, including in 2004 when his sister Sathi Devi was the candidate.
“The popular sentiment against the central government will be reflected in the election. The development works of the state government will also be discussed. The people say that Mullappally Ramachandran's two terms as MP were the 'wasted 10 years'. If elected, I will bring in more schemes from the central and state governments to the constituency,” Jayarajan said.
Jayarajan's choice as the Left Democratic Front candidate led the Congress to look for an equally strong candidate.
Muraleedharan was that trump card. The son of former chief minister K Karunakaran has assumed a heroic image in the opposition front by daring to challenge Jayarajan in his home turf. Ally Muslim League and the RMP also lobbied for Muraleedharan's candidature.
Muraleedharan said he was also nudged to take the plunge by some fellow travellers of the left in the constituency.
Muraleedharan has represented Kozhikode three times in the Lok Sabha before he was elected as an MLA from Vattiyoorkavu two times.
He had the misfortune of being appointed a state minister and losing a by-election soon after.
He was so peeved that he almost disowned the party he had been leading in the state.
He has since returned to the Congress as one of its strong leaders.
He steadily worked his way to transcend the group equations of the party, thanks to his clear-cut opinions and diplomacy. He was given a hero's welcome by the UDF workers in Vadakara.
“This election is about placing a secular government at the centre. We have to wipe away those people who contaminated even our food with religion and politics. We are also fighting against the CPM stand for enjoying power and promoting violence. We will also talk about Mullappally Ramachandran's development initiatives over the last 10 years,” Muraleedharan said.
The BJP is counting on its agitation agitation against women's entry to the Sabarimala shrine to translate into votes in its favour.
State secretary V K Sajeevan is no stranger to the people of Vadakara. He had contested along with Mullappally and A N Shamseer in 2014.
The party had doubled its votes from its share in 2009. It did better in the 2016 assembly election, compared to the previous assembly election.
“The achievements of the Modi government will translate into votes. More than a lakh people in Kozhikode district have received assistance under the Kisan Samman Nidhi. The BJP's attempts to preserve the rituals of the Sabarimala temple will be recognised. The people will express their disapproval of CPM's violent politics,” Sajeevan said.
Most of the assembly segments and local bodies within the Vadakara Lok Sabha constituency are controlled by the LDF. Except Kuttiyadi, which elected Muslim League's Parakkal Abdulla, all assembly segments stood by the LDF in 2016. While the CPM won Thalassery, Koothuparamba, Perambra and Koyilandi, the JD(S) won Vadakara and the CPI candidate won in Nadapuram.
Going by the voting pattern of 2016, the LDF has a lead of 76,991 votes in the Lok Sabha constituency.
The LDF controls 37 local bodies in the constituency, while the UDF has 14 and the RMP just one.
The UDF expects the recent political murders to turn the tide against the CPM.
It hopes to tap into the minority votes with the help of the Muslim League. Muraleedharan's staunch stand against the entry of women into Sabarimala may win him the support of the Hindu voters as well, the UDF hopes.
The RMP has announced unconditional support to Muraleedharan, careful not to split votes by fielding K K Rema, the wife of Chandrasekharan. The divisions in the Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD), which is in the LDF camp, may also work in UDF's favour.
The CPM accuses the Congress of forsaking the constituency for 10 years. The CPM promises to make up for the lost years with the strong leadership of Jayarajan. His works in the palliative care sector in the Kannur district has also made him popular.