At this half-way stage in the Lok Sabha election campaign, the Congress has emerged the playmaker in Kerala.
It is not the Sabarimala women's entry or the second renaissance, as it was widely thought, that has animated the poll scene in Kerala. What has instead shaken up the pre-election mood is the maverick move made by the Congress party.
Right from the surprise choice of K Muraleedharan in Vadakara and then the momentous decision to field Rahul Gandhi himself from Wayanad, Congress has proved to be the most, or perhaps the only, provocative party in the fray this time. It seems to be setting the poll agenda in Kerala, even when it comes across as lazy and inefficient. See how the long delay in announcing Rahul's candidature had led to the entire political discussion concentrating solely on the Congress.
Votes or brickbats?
The opponents are effectively, to once again loan a football jargon, marked. They now have time only to respond to whatever the Congress does. See also how aggressively Ramya Haridas, the Congress's Alathur candidate, has taken up the tasteless taunt made by LDF convenor A Vijayaraghavan.
In a metaphorical sense, the Congress can be likened to the boy in the middle of the playground who is eager to show off skills the others somehow do not possess. There is no question that all attention will be on the boy, but whether the skills will earn him applause or ear-splitting abuse is anybody's guess. In 2014, for instance, the attention was on the CPM, especially on account of the murder of T P Chandrasekharan and the CPM's maltreatment of its own allies. When the results came, the CPM suffered.
"This can cut both ways," said political scientist J Prabhash. "Seen as the only party doing some exciting stuff, fence-sitters, or the decisive floating voters, can perceive the Congress as the most happening party and roll over to its side. But equally plausible is the sudden eruption of anger that can bring together bitter foes to teach the Congress a lesson. We cannot rule out a situation where the BJP might think it fine to shift some votes to the Left to make the Congress bite the dust. They won't mind if the LDF wins 10 or 12 seats as long as the Congress is crushed," he said. The Left, too, will not be too squeamish about pocketing some right-wing votes as long as they are not asked for a return favour.
Homecoming for minorities
According to Prabhash, this seemingly unending focus on Rahul's Wayanad foray can work in favour of the Congress. "After the bold stand taken by Pinarayi Vijayan in the Sabarimala issue, minorities were seen to be gradually shifting their allegiance to the CPM. But the blistering manner in which the BJP had ridiculed Rahul for taking refuge in a Muslim citadel might induce a sympathy that could have the effect of minorities gravitating back to the Congress," he said.
Josukutty C A, a professor of politics with the Kerala University, too felt that this constant spotlight on Rahul could help the Congress win back the minorities. He said if the CPM had managed to wean away the minorities in the state from the Congress recently it was because the Congress was unapologetically pursuing a soft Hindutva approach in North India. "Now with Rahul coming to Wayanad, and the BJP crying hoarse that he is appeasing the minorities, the Left's plan to lure the Muslim votes may have to be put on hold at least temporarily," Josukutty said.
Anger and self-pity
It looks like the BJP's anti-Rahul harangue after he chose Wayanad has absolved Rahul of some guilt. "Rahul Gandhi has been competing with the BJP to pander to the interests of the Hindutva class. He goes around visiting temples and his governments in the north are as much angered by cow slaughter as the Adityanath government in UP," said Shaji Varkey, the dean of the faculty of social sciences, Kerala University.
If the BJP has kind of strengthened the Congress, the Left seems to have shot itself in the foot. "It is true that Rahul's arrival has hurt the Left the most. The Left has made it look even bad by the way they responded to Rahul's arrival," said James Joseph, a former professor of politics. "It looks like they have been jilted. They say that they are fighting the Congress in the state and when Rahul comes here they cry foul and say that they have been betrayed. If this is not political suicide, what is," he asked.