The Manorama-Karvy opinion poll results have thrown up major surprises, both in terms of constituency and voter behaviour.
Of the 10 constituencies for which the results have been published on Wednesday, the UDF is expected to win in eight and this will include LDF citadels like Alathur, Kasaragod, Kannur.
Interestingly, Muslim-dominated constituencies like Malappuram and Ponnani have expressed high opinion of prime minister Narendra Modi and his government.
The LDF will retain Attingal with ease and will just about manage to edge out the UDF in Alappuzha. However, the big surprise is the possible loss of the CPM in its stronghold Alathur, that too by a fairly large 6 per cent margin. The survey was done before Ramya Haridas was made the UDF candidate. It is also true that P K Biju's majority had dwindled in 2014.
Yet another result that runs contrary to popular notion is the huge victory predicted for the UDF candidate in Idukki where the CPM-independent Joice George is seeking a second chance. If in 2014 Joice had won by a margin of 5 per cent, the survey shows that this time Congress' Dean Kuriakose, whom he had defeated last time, will win by a margin of 5 per cent. Unlike in 2014, the Church has refused to openly back Joice George this time.
Chalakkudy, where CPM's Innocent and Congress' Benny Behanan are locked in a tight contest, the survey shows a marginal edge for the Congress. Last time, Innocent had only a marginal advantage of 1.05 per cent. This time the survey predicts a similar wafer-thin advantage of one per cent for Behanan. This is the only constituency where, according to the survey, there will be a photo-finish in the state.
The UDF is expected to win big in the other five constituencies. This includes UDF bastions like Ernakulam (where Hibi Eden is predicted to trounce P Rajeev) and Kottayam (where the survey suggests that infighting will not pose any problems for Kerala Congress' Thomas Chazhikkadan in his fight against CPM's V N Vasavan) and also LDF strongholds like Kollam (N K Premachandran will trounce Balagopal by a margin of 7 per cent votes), Kannur (K Sudhakaran will defeat Sreemathi by a mighty margin of 11 per cent votes and extract revenge for 2014 when he lost by a whisker, by 0.29 per cent votes) and Kasaragod (where Rajmohan Unnithan is expected to script an upset win by a handsome margin of 7 per cent votes.)
The performance of NDA, too, strays from accepted wisdom. For instance, the polls show that the NDA candidate in Kottayam, P C Thomas, will secure just 2 per cent of the votes. However, in Kasaragod, Alathur and Attingal, the NDA will garner more than 10 per cent votes.
There are more surprises in store when it comes to the issues people consider are the most important. Price rise, fuel price hikes, unemployment and corruption are the four main issues that matter to voters. Sabarimala comes a distant 13 in the list of issues that matter.
Perhaps the most counter-intuitive result thrown up by the opinion poll was the high rating voters in Malappuram and Ponnani, Muslim League bastions, have given prime minister Narendra Modi. Thrissur and Thiruvananthauram, too, have a high opinion of Modi, but that was expected. Malappuram, Ponnani, Thrissur and Thiruvananthauram also speak highly of the NDA performance.
For the survey, 60 voters belonging to eight booths in each Assembly constituency were approached. This is perhaps the most exhaustive such exercise carried out by a TV channel in Kerala. The survey was carried out in all the 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state covering each of the 140 Assembly constituencies, from February 23 to March 7.
