Former Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao called BSP leader Mayawati a ‘miracle of Indian democracy’ when she got elected as the Uttar Pradesh chief minister in 1995 despite her humble backgrounds. She repeated the miracle thrice again and even completed her five-year term on the fourth. It is unsure if she will get to the prime ministerial post. But her curious methods – fielding BSP candidates in major states - repeat this year too despite little gains so far.
National force?
BSP struggles to make even a ripple in states other than UP. But that has not stopped it from contesting alone or allying with smaller parties in Maharashtra, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka. A Lok Sabha contest costs Rs 7-10 crore in a single constituency, say parties. Forget high-decibel campaigns, a simple one requires deep pockets.
Terrible returns
BSP contested in 503 seats in 2014 and won 0. The party had won 20 Lok Sabha seats from UP and 1 from Madhya Pradesh in the 2009 elections. The UP result of 2014 was a shock. The party contested almost 1,500 Assembly seats in the last five years since, only to win 13.
Varied allies
BSP's current allies are: SP in UP, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand; Pawan Kalyan’s Janasena in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, BJP rebel Raj Kumar Saini’s Loktantra Suraksha Party (LSP) in Haryana and Punjabi Ekta Party (PEP) in Punjab. But none are capable of winning BSP any seats.
This cocktail however affects Congress. Its resurgence in the recent Assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh is not good news for BSP. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s entry and her interaction with certain Dalit groups are disconcerting for Maya. Going with Congress could drain its base votes more. BSP had also turned down an invitation to join the RJD-led Grand Alliance (Mahagadbandhan) in Bihar.
BJP stands to gain from Behanji's intransigence. In Madhya Pradesh, BSP caused the defeat of at least 10 Congress candidates in 2018. It was also instrumental in Congress’s narrow loss in 16 Gujarat seats. Mayawati’s strong fight in other states too affects Congress the most.
Raids and politics
The Enforcement Directorate found several crores of rupees had flowed into BSP bank account after demonetisation and Mayawati’s brother’s account had surged. The Income Tax Department had renewed a 17-year-old case last month and raided the Delhi and Lucknow residences of Net Ram who is Mayawati’s former secretary and retired IAS officer.
Some believe the raids and BSP's reluctance to join greater opposition are related.
Advantage Mamata
Mamata Banerjee has a better chance than Mayawati in case of a hung verdict. When no one from BSP reached Lok Sabha in 2014, Trinamool had 32 members. Mamata’s chances are strong this time too. But if BSP wins 60-odd seats in UP along with SP, Mayawati will have an upper hand. Just because she is not contesting does not mean Mayawati is not interested in becoming prime minister. It’s just that the political picture will take some time to come into focus.