Raipura:The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which reaped rich dividends in 2014 Lok Sabha polls from five reserved seats in Chhattisgarh, is now battling a stiff challenge from the Congress.
These five seats reserved for Dalits and Adivasis went to the saffron fold helping the BJP to win 10 out of 11 Lok Sabha seats in the central Indian state.
However, nearly five years later, in the recently held Assembly elections in the state, the BJP faced a crushing defeat and lost its solid support both in urban and rural pockets.
So the big question is how will the saffron party slug it out this time.
In 2014, the BJP, which had not historically performed well in tribal-dominated seats, went on to win five reserved constituencies and and five general seats.
The Congress was able to win in Durg, where Other Backward Classes (OBCs) are dominant.
In the 2018 Assembly polls in Chhattisgarh, the BJP crumbled facing strong headwinds. In the largely tribal state, the BJP’s tally in the 39 reserved seats in the House of 90 members went down from 20 to five. Its vote share crashed by over 8 per cent.
The crushing defeat of the 15-year-old Raman Singh government in the Assembly elections was mainly due to the proper strategy the Congress put in place in five reserved seats. Of these Bastar, Sarguja, Rajgarh and Kanker are earmarked for candidates of the Scheduled Tribes (STs) and Janjgir-Champa is a reserved one or Scheduled Castes (SC).
Two out of every five residents of the state are SCs or STs.
What helped the rebound of Congress
The Congress stitched together a rainbow coalition by playing up its soft Hindutva card, and by bringing the OBCs, Dalit and Adivasis.
The strategy worked well.
The BJP lost heavily in seats reserved for Dalits (SCs) and Adivasis (STs), signalling a massive shift from the 2013 Assembly elections.
Last year's assembly elections also witnessed a shift of backward communities towards the Congress. The party won 25 of the 29 seats reserved for ST candidates and seven out of the 10 seats reserved for SCs. The Congress wrested the state back from the BJP with 68 seats in the 90-member House.
The BJP, which ruled the state for 15 years, had won 11 seats reserved for STs in the 2013 Assembly polls, but ended up with just three in the 2018 state elections. Among the key losers of the BJP from the reserved seats were three ministers – Forest minister Mahesh Gagda, School Education minister Kedar Kashyap and Home Minister Ramsevak Paikra.
Largely settled in the plains, the SCs make up roughly 12 per cent of the state's 2.5 crore population.
The image of Raman Singh, who has been popular as 'chawal-wale baba' (the man with rice) after a popular scheme to provide rice to the poor, also took a beating.
Even his government’s ambitious scheme to distribute 50 lakh smartphones failed to woo the state’s 37 lakh farmers.
According to experts, the BJP did not do too well in the 2018 Assembly polls held in November because of party’s involvement in the dilution of the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities Act (POA) by the Supreme Court. Its dilly-dallying over bringing in an over-riding legal remedy irked voters. Dalits and Adivasis suspected that the BJP and the Sangh Parivar were against their interests.
Similarly, rising atrocities in the name of cow protection, non-implementation of the Forest Rights Act (FRA) and cuts in special budgetary allocations for tribals pitched the Dalits and Adivasis against the saffron outfit.
Latest electoral test
However, the BJP feels the drubbing in the 2018 Assembly elections won’t reflect in the Lok Sabha elections.
“The entire country is witnessing a Narendra Modi wave. We are expected to win all 11 Lok Sabha seats of Chhattisgarh," state BJP spokesperson Sachchidanand Upasane said.
The Congress think tank feels it would perform well in tribal dominated areas in this election.
“Past track record will ensure victory of Congress in the reserved seats of Chhattisgarh,” state Congress general secretary Shailesh Nitin Trivedi said.
To what extent the outcome of Assembly elections results would reflect in Lok Sabha elections is unclear, but electoral fortunes of political parties pre-dominantly dependant on support of Adivasis and Dalits.
Chhattisgarh polls will be held in three phases -- April 11, 18 and 23.
BJP's SC vote base too crumbled as the Congress won seven of the 10 seats reserved for candidates of the community.
The BJP's tally on this count dropped to two from nine in 2013.