In Maharashtra today, two political alliances, with seemingly irreconcilable differences, confront each other at the Lok Sabha hustings. Some observers, like journalists covering Mantralaya affairs, are likely to restate their internal conflicts as a fight over the spoils of war; others might view it as a mere game of tantrum throwing and brinkmanship between long-term partners.
Certainly, there's more to the situation than meets the eye, but if one were to rely on the optics, the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena combine looks set to dominate the poll outcome. Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray have sealed an alliance just in time, though it appeared they were headed for a crisis point. They made it known, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with BJP president Amit Shah at a joint press conference in Mumbai, that power or seat-sharing were secondary to issues of public welfare and construction of the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya.
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The Congress and NCP, who were itching for a triangular contest, hoping the BJP and Sena would go their separate ways, instead find themselves in a disarray, confronting internal bickering and desertions after announcement of poll dates.
An unexpected jolt for the two Congress camps came from Sharad Pawar himself when he made public his reluctance to contest the Lok Sabha polls. The stated reason – the likely candidature of a fresh, young face from the Pawar clan. Parth is the son of Ajit Pawar and the family doesn't want to be seen cornering three seats, Pawar senior explained.
Pawar had vacated the home seat of Baramati for daughter Supriya Sule in 2009, and won from neighbouring Madha. In 2014, he announced retirement from electoral contests and had chosen the Rajya Sabha route. But speculations were rife again that he may contest from Madha this time.
In Pune on Monday, Pawar dismissed speculations triggered by Fadnavis' cryptic comment that he had understood which way the political winds were blowing, saying: "I have already contested 14 times in the past and never withdrew my candidacy. So, please remove the thought of my pulling back out of any fear."
Parth is eyeing Maval constituency, north of Pune, which the NCP lost twice to the Sena since its creation in 2008. Besides, Madha is now represented by Vijaysinh Mohite-Patil, a former deputy CM, who was among the few who held their own against the Modi 'wave' in 2014, and wants to pass on the baton to his son.
However, Pawar's withdrawal has led to wild speculations, including a likely rivalry building up within the next-generation Pawars, and the NCP chief's own loosening grip over his family and party affairs.
Whatever, the political 'son-rise' seems to have also infected the Congress camp badly. The defection of Sujay, son of Radhakrishna Vikhe-Patil, the Leader of Opposition in state Assembly, to the BJP jolted the party on Tuesday.
A fourth generation scion of the Vikhe-Patils, original barons from the prosperous sugar heartland, Sujay had staked claim to the family's pocket borough in Ahmednagar. But since the Congress failed to ensure his nomination as the seat fell within the NCP quota, he did what his father and grandfather had done in the past – though he preferred the BJP to the Sena.
Sujay's preference for "the rising BJP," as he put it to a Marathi news channel, is perhaps a sign of the times. Maharashtra's social and political landscape has undergone a sea change since 2014. The parliamentary polls held that year brought to an end the dominance by the Congress and its Maratha elite of the state's politics, ever since its inception in 1960. The Congress and its rebel offshoot, the NCP, were reduced to a mere six of Maharashtra's 48 Lok Sabha seats and their vote base eroded significantly. The BJP topped with 23 seats followed by the Sena with 18 seats, and emerged the single largest party in the subsequent assembly polls.
The beleaguered Maratha elites, having abandoned their natural home in the Congress-NCP, are now finding new openings among the OBC-upper caste-urban-trader base of the BJP, albeit to sustain their feudal over-lordships in the traditional strongholds at the district and taluka levels.
The Fadnavis government has obliged the Marathas' lesser-known Kunbi or tiller brethren with a 16 per cent educational and job quota, after categorising the community as socially backward, hoping this gesture will win over rich political dividends for the BJP.
For the ordinary Marathas, making up more than 30 per cent of the state's population, the core issue remains their dwindling economic fortunes. A majority of them are either small or marginal landowners, or agricultural labourers, eking out a meagre living in the state's rural hinterlands. A large number of farmers who have committed suicide in Maharashtra during the past few decades have been Marathas or Kunbis.
Migrating to cities puts the pre-dominantly rural community at a further disadvantage, as its members find themselves at the lowest end of the socio-economic ladder, a sharp contrast to the political and economic clout of the top layer. Just about three per cent of Marathas were categorised as prosperous in a 2014 study by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.
However, it's unlikely that any one party or coalition will rake in the benefits on the Maratha reservation issue. The Maratha Kranti Morcha, which famously led the silent street protests, is only an umbrella organization and its member organisations spread across the state are split four-ways in their political allegiance among the BJP, Sena, Congress and NCP.
But the fulfilment of the Maratha-Kunbi's long-pending demand for a quota on social and economic grounds, could provide the much-needed heft to the BJP's substantially grown voter base, at the forthcoming polls.
Fadnavis though could be well aware that in pushing through the reservation for Marathas, he has opened a Pandora's box – the Dhangars or shepherds have been demanding scheduled tribes status while the Muslims too want reservation.
One thing is for sure: BJP's growing ambitions are changing Maharashtra's social equations and leading to fresh political alignments, making even its alliance partners, especially Shiv Sena, a trifle upset as apparent from the frequent outbursts by Uddhav Thackeray, despite sharing power.
Uddhav is aware that it was his father, Bal Thackeray, who originally built a strong political alternative to the Congress-led rural feudal-urban capitalist nexus. However, after the split with cousin Raj and the passing away of Thackeray senior, Uddhav has failed to occupy the political space caused by the steady erosion of the Congress parties since the nineties.
The Shiv Sena chief, in spite of his strident criticism of the Fadnavis government's policies, is viewed as relatively passive and given to compromises unlike his father, who insisted on playing big brother in Maharashtra during the A B Vajpayee-L K Advani era. Under Uddhav, the Sena ministers are reduced to powerless alibis of a dominant BJP under the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine.
On the other hand, Raj Thackeray seems to have virtually given up on contesting the Lok Sabha. His failure to present an electoral roadmap at the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena's 13th anniversary last week has led to much anguish and disappointment among his staunch cadres. His lone MLA is back in the Sena, raising serious doubts over the party's future prospects.
Amid such a scenario, the re-emergence of Prakash Ambedkar and his newly-launched Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) has created a buzz in the state's political circles. It's a clever strategy by Ambedkar to distance himself from the fragmented and compromised politics of his main rival, Union minister Ramdas Athavale, and other Dalit factions, and look to widen his appeal among the lower-OBCs and Muslims. But his poll alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM, which has two sitting MLAs, could end up helping the saffron alliance by dividing anti-BJP votes.
Ambedkar though has emerged as one of the most strident critics of Hindutva forces, ever since the Dabholkar-Pansare murders and the suicide of Rohith Vemula. The attack on Dalits gathered at Bhima Koregaon put him on the centre stage last year.
Ambedkar has shared the platform with Communists, socialists and several other progressive organisations for decades. He was one of the speakers at the Elgar Parishad in Pune, and his call for a 'Maharashtra Bandh' to protest the violence against Dalits evoked state-wide response.
The VBA appears to be banking on Ambedkar's new-found momentum and the support of Owaisi and smaller socio-political outfits, rather than form an electoral alliance with the Congress-NCP. The new third front could hope for a couple of wins, besides tilting the balance in a dozen others seats, but there's also a possibility that the secular and progressive voters may not shift from the two Congress parties.
Still, Ambedkar has proved a far better and more aggressive opponent of the BJP than the Congress-NCP in the past five years. Though they announced their alliance much ahead of their rivals, the main opposition headed by Rahul Gandhi and Sharad Pawar are still to work out seat adjustments and have shown little concern for smaller, Left-leaning parties who would like to align with them.
Rahul may have galvanised the Congress and its cadres elsewhere, but in Maharashtra there are no signs of its revival. The talks with Pawar are mostly held in Delhi and the state's top leaders, including former Union ministers and chief ministers like Sushilkumar Shinde, Ashok Chavan and Prithviraj Chavan, have little to show by way of leadership initiative or grassroots work.
It's surprising that in the face of BJP-Shiv Sena's onward march, these state leaders who cornered plum posts and once dominated Maharashtra's politics, haven't felt the need to forge working alliances with organisations of neglected sections like the Dalits, Adivasis, poor farming and artisan communities, besides minorities. These groups comprise nearly 50 per cent of the state's population, but continue to be neglected by the powers that be.
Sharad Pawar is considered the last of the state's tall leaders with a deft, grassroots touch. Unfortunately, ever since the formation of the NCP, even his public persona has been clouded by the party's Maratha-centric approach.
It's more than apparent that the Dalit, Muslim and other marginalised communities are looking to a fresh alternative. However, doubts remain over the Congress-NCP and Amebdkar-Owaisi's capacity to defeat the formidable BJP-Shiv Sena alliance.
The opposition first needs to work an effective electoral strategy among themselves to garner enough votes to defeat the BJP-Sena. That appears a distant possibility, at least till the Lok Sabha elections are over!