Kolkata: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Amit Shah has set an ambitious target of 22-plus seats from West Bengal in the Lok Sabha polls, but the party's state unit seems to be on a shaky wicket.
West Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats.
Factionalism and lack of a leader with the charisma to take on Mamata Banerjee are hampering the BJP's growth prospects in a state where it has emerged as the principal opposition party, but is struggling to keep on the momentum.
Key political parties have finalised their candidates and are working on campaign strategies to be adopted, but the BJP state unit is yet to fix their candidates.
After a verdict passed by Calcutta High Court, there had been no major public meetings in the state due to the ongoing board exams.
Parties are relying on door-to-door campaigns and small rallies across the state.
The BJP state unit is alleging that the TMC is unleashing violence, but it has not taken any concrete steps to capture the imagination of the electorate.
Factionalism may be at play and that is the probable reason why the list of candidates is being delayed, according to a section of the party.
The party is putting up a brave face saying it has not been able to finalise the list as the number of seat aspirants is growing day by day, indicating the popularity of the saffron outfit.
The state leaders have sent a list of more than 3,000 prospective candidates, including celebrities, to the central leadership, they say.
Emergence as main opposition
It is a fact that the BJP has emerged as the principal opposition party to take on the might of the Trinamool, but factionalism, lack of a strong local leadership structure and absence of a leader of Mamata's stature may hamper its prospects in the upcoming polls.
The BJP had been a fringe player in the state ever since its formation in 1980.
Even a decade ago, it had limited penetration among the electorate in the state, which accounts for a Muslim population of nearly 27 per cent.
Till date, the BJP has bagged Lok Sabha seats in the state in only three elections -- one in 1998, two in 1999 (both in alliance with the Trinamool) and two in 2014 (by fighting alone).
However, after the 2014 general elections and last year's panchayat polls, the BJP has emerged as the prime opposition player to take on Mamata.
It has managed to unleash high-voltage campaigns and has been successful in putting up strong opposition to the state government policies.
It has also been able to mobilise Hindu votes in some pockets.
These are the factors that the BJP state unit is counting on to realise Shah's target of winning 23-plus seats.
It "looks difficult, but is not impossible," according to some BJP leaders.
Why some bet on the party
Some observers are willing to bet on the BJP's prospects.
According to political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty, the party can garner close to 30 per cent of the votes at the hustings.
"This is because a large number of people have drifted towards BJP in recent years," Chakraborty, a professor at Rabindra Bharati University, told a news agency.
The first noteworthy evidence of the BJP's rise in Bengal was in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, where it garnered 16.80 per cent votes, significantly higher than its tally of 10.66 per cent in 2009.
It also finished second in many seats, pushing the Left Front to the third slot.
After becoming the ruling party at the centre, the BJP made further inroads in Bengal.
With the Congress and the Left stitching up a pact in the 2016 assembly elections, the BJP could manage only 10 per cent of the votes.
Despite this, the party won three seats and almost doubled its vote share compared to the previous assembly polls (5.6 percent) in 2011, when the Trinamool ended the Communist led Left Front's 34-year uninterrupted reign.
The BJP's most promising electoral show was in the 2018 rural body polls, when it got 8 per cent votes and increased its tally in all three layers of the Panchayat system.
Its emergence battered the Left and the Congress.
Now, with the general elections imminent, the BJP has launched a campaign blitz by roping in its national leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party President Amit Shah.
Bengal ranks high in the BJP's plans as part of its focus on the east.
Modi, Shah and other heavyweights including Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath have been tearing into the Mamata Banerjee government, accusing it of “unprecedented corruption, violence and minority appeasement”.
With Bengal sharing a 2,217-km border with Bangladesh, the BJP is also not wasting any chance to raise the infiltration issue.
It is also mooting a National Registry of Citizens in the state, just like in Assam.
Growth on others' ruins
According to political observers, the BJP's rise has been facilitated by the shrinking support base of the Left and the Congress, particularly of the former.
Over the past couple of years, a section of Left voters shifted to the BJP. The BJP is hoping the trend would gather momentum in the general elections.
BJP leaders mostly pitch the leadership qualities of Modi and his development campaigns, while citing the lack of progress in Bengal.
The insinuation is that Bengal is a laggard due to the corrupt Trinamool government at helm.
BJP secretary Rahul Sinha admits the party lacks muscle power and a local leadership structure to take on Mamata's Trinamool.
"The number of leaders who can take responsibilities at the state level is low," he says.
Rival camps
Factionalism could also queer its pitch.
State president Dilip Ghosh, a former RSS pracharak, and campaign committee chief Mukul Roy -- a new entrant from the Trinamool - reportedly don't see eye to eye.
And despite the tall claims, the BJP's organisational might across the state is also suspect as it would be up against a well-oiled Trinamool poll machinery.
A split in the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM), which has a significant base in North Bengal's Darjeeling hills, has increased the worries for the BJP.
In 2009 and 2014, the saffron outfit had won the Darjeeling seat with the backing of the GJM.
A powerful faction of the GJM has switching allegiance to Trinamool.
So retaining Darjeeling could be an uphill task for the BJP.
The BJP's campaign plank of corruption against the Trinamool could seem a trifle hollow with the entry of leaders like Mukul Roy and Shankudeb Panda.
Both figure in the Narada sting video footage and have also been quizzed by the CBI in the ponzi scam probe.
Former West Midnapore police chief Bharati Ghosh's entry into the party is another drag. She has been linked to an extortion case in the district's Daspur area.
The saffron outfit will have to tide over giant odds in Bengal to meet Amit Shah's target expectations.